Who doesn’t love a preseason top ten?? Us. We don’t. They’re stupid. Let's do one anyways.
Sam Ranson - Aug. 23, 2024
Who doesn’t love a preseason top ten?? Us. We don’t. They’re stupid. They’re stupid because they’re sticky. You rank teams before you’ve seen them, and then you’re tethered to an order. We’re not going to do that here…at least not in the preseason. Instead, we’re going to group teams into tiers. “Isn’t that similar?” you ask? “Won’t those tiers be sticky too?” No. These tiers are going to be dry as fuck. If you show out—or if you soil yourself—the tiers will reflect it! Long live the tiers!!
Georgia Bulldogs. Call me a homer, but can you honestly envision a Kirby-led Georgia team missing this first 12-team playoff? Loaded on both sides of the ball. Deep at virtually every position group, if not as stocked as in recent years at a premium position like defensive line. Carson Beck is back and has first-round arm talent. Offensive line is elite—as usual under Kirby—while defensive line is still stout and studded with emerging stars like superfreak defensive end Mykel Williams. Sufficient playmaking talent, bolstered by the arrival of running back Trevor Etienne from the cucked Gators. It would benefit Beck and the offense if a pass catcher (or two) assumed an alpha role. Linebacking corps and defensive backfield are downright scary, headlined by Smael Mondon and Malaki Starks. Will face a brutal stretch in the middle of the schedule—Alabama, Auburn, Texas, Florida, Ole Miss, and Tennessee in a seven-week span—but are equipped to handle it and potentially run the table in the regular season. Kirby and Co.’s years of elite recruiting—particularly where it matters most, which is the boys who put their hands in the dirt—and the general professionalism of their program (ridiculous and completely unacceptable traffic violations notwithstanding) continue to pay dividends for my ‘Dawgs.
Ohio State Buckeyes. Also loaded, and absolutely all in on this season. After yet another disappointing end to yet another 10-win season, OSU’s big-money folks ponied up to 1) keep several studs, like running back TreVeyon Henderson and jumbo defensive end JT Tuimoloau, from entering the draft and 2) bring in additional elite talent through the portal, including playmaking safety Caleb Downs from Alabama. Hungry to add to their trophy case for the first time since 2014, and Ryan Day is likely starving to win the one game that may matter more than national titles at OSU—the Michigan game. Defensive line looks nasty, and the defense as a whole may be the best in the country. The key question for us is—is transfer quarterback Will Howard that guy (pal)? He won a lot of games at Kansas State, but the lights are a bit brighter at OSU, where 9-3 ain’t shit, and where he’ll be expected to win in environments like Oregon and Penn State (and more importantly, in the playoffs). If he can handle it, this roster is stacked to the tits with future NFL talent, and because of that talent, and because of a highly manageable schedule, we expect to be watching Ohio State in the playoffs. The Howard question really speaks more to how the Bucknuts will fare once there.
Texas Longhorns. Sarkisian has recruited extremely well, including along the lines of scrimmage, an area where Texas has been a bit deficient (cough, SOFT) in the past. Ewers returns at QB—with the entire Manning family looking over his shoulder as baby Arch enters his sophomore season—and though he has doubters, the arm talent is there. Schedule includes an early trip to Michigan and then a one-two punch of Red River (i.e. Oklahoma) and a massive home bout against Georgia. They feel like a playoff team to us—an impressive feat for Sark in their first season in the SEC—but can they do more than that? We’re not wholly convinced.
Oregon Ducks. Feels like a program ready to take its seat at the big boy table. Lanning is recruiting at an elite level, and seems to be finding success building his “own” (wink, wink) program in the mold of Kirby and Nick. No longer just a bunch of track star skill players in stupid uniforms, they now boast talented depth along both lines of scrimmage. Schedule is sneaky tough in our estimation, as they get Boise State in week 2, face a pissed-off gam of Oregon State Beavers in week 3, and get Ohio State in a massive home tilt in week 5, all before going to the Big House to face Michigan, Camp Randall to face ‘Sconsin, and back home to face Washington in November. Can they get to 10 wins and a Big Ten championship game berth? If so, they’re probably a playoff team.
Alabama Crimson Tide. Rumor has it ‘Bama has given Saban both an office and an apartment at Bryant-Denny. Hoo boy. DeBoer better be ready for the fire, because the heat will be unlike anything he’s felt before. That said, the guy’s won—and won big—everywhere he’s been, so it would seem his process is sound. For me the biggest question is, can he do it—recruit, compete, hobnob with boosters—in his new environment? Can he do it in the Deep South, in the shadow of Saban, in the shadow of the Bear, and under the watchful eye of a couple million tree-poisoning lunatics? (I say that with some degree of love for the devotion). Our gut tells us it’s going to take him a couple years to get them firing on all cylinders, but that doesn’t mean he can’t make an expanded playoff in year one. Unsurprisingly, despite a raft of transfers following Saban’s retirement, the cupboard is far from bare. Can DeBoer install his culture and maintain buy-in through a tough schedule? We should get a pretty good look under the hood when Georgia visits Tuscaloosa on September 28.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish. People clown on these delusional assclowns, but they shouldn’t. Freeman has recruited well, and this is a deep and talented team. Quarterback Riley Leonard makes the jump from Duke—Notre Dame loves those ACC quarterbacks, don’t they folks?—and is a big kid who can spin it just fine but, assuming he’s fully recovered from offseason ankle surgery, really threaten you with his legs (as in, he’ll house a read option from 80 yards). Should be good in the trenches, as usual—though just lost their starting left tackle for the season and may be forced to replace him with a true freshman—and their defense as a whole looks stout and full of proven vets. The million-dollar question is—if they make the playoff, do they get stuffed in a locker by a more talented Southern power? Because the whole point behind Freeman’s hire was, as far as we can tell, to leverage his recruiting prowess to better position the Leprechauns for just those types of matchups. This year will be a good test of that hypotenuse.
Florida State Seminoles. Replacing a boatload of talent from last year’s 13-0 squad, which saw double digit players drafted. That said, Norvell continues to improve this roster through a mix of portal wizardry and steadily improving prep recruiting, and my ‘Noles’ talent floor is vastly elevated relative to a couple years ago. May boast FSU’s best offensive line in a decade, which should allow a deep and versatile stable of running backs to chew up yardage and control games. DJ Uiagalelei transfers in to lead an offense that’s been built around his ability to push the ball down the field to speedy (if relatively unproven) receivers, particularly off play action. Pass rush has the potential to be elite, as does the starting defensive tackle duo of Farmer and Jackson, although depth could be a concern on the interior of the defensive line. Linebackers are a potential concern, particularly in coverage. Defensive backfield is among the best in the country—this is DBU, after all—with a blend of proven veterans and young bucks waiting to make their mark. Road tests against Miami and Notre Dame, as well as a home bout with Clemson, will define what many see as a transitional season, but which folks in Tallahassee are hoping might turn into a revenge tour following last year’s playoff snub.
Utah Utes. As usual, beefy along both lines of scrimmage. Quarterback Cam Rising back and presumably healthy, and this time with capable back-up options. Our favorite to win the Big 12 in their inaugural season in the league. Honestly, not much else to say other than it’s a joy to watch Whittingham get more out of less year after year.
Michigan Wolverines. Full disclosure: didn’t want to include them in this tier, because they lost absolutely everything. Head coach, most of his assistants, quarterback, star skill guys, virtually their entire defense…but they are the defending champs, and Harbaugh recruited at a high level over a sustained period. Week 2 showdown against Texas will be telling, though the schedule is largely navigable from there until a pair of November showdowns with Oregon and Ohio State. Give credit where credit’s due: this program is 40-3 (!) over its past three seasons. But Harbaugh and his bizarre yet effective form of leadership—and his propensity to bend the rules in the kind of classy and acceptable way that only a Michigan Man can—are gone, and the Big Ten just got tougher with the addition of Oregon, USC, and Washington. All that said, beat Texas week 2 and USC week 4—Michigan gets both of them at the Big House—and they’ll be ranked in the top 5 and we’ll look like a buncha knobs!
Miami Hurricanes. Say what you will about his hilarious gameday coaching gaffes (and we will), Mario Cristobal has improved this roster, particularly along the lines of scrimmage. Cam Ward—who FSU also made a play for in the transfer market—probably gives them their best quarterback since…Ken Dorsey? Stout along both lines of scrimmage (though perhaps not yet deep enough). Boast talented playmakers, including running back Damien Martinez (who they nabbed after a massive year at Oregon State) and a deep wide receiver corps. Rugged, experienced linebacking group. ALL THAT SAID, if something goes wrong, if they drop their opener to pre-fired Billy Napier’s Gators, or if they get caved in by my ‘Noles in what could have the feel of an old school Miami/FSU clash in November, do they pull their usual vanishing act and fold up like a cheap tent? Where’s their culture in year three under Mario? If it’s in a good place, and if they can avoid going into their usual tailspin after a loss, the schedule is favorable for a playoff appearance.
Mississippi Rebels. Likely the most talented Ole Piss team of your lifetime…but can they avoid that random setback to Arkansas? And are they deep enough to weather injuries and beat a Georgia or a Texas late in the season? Kiffin’s ability to produce a potent offense is well documented, and with quarterback Jaxson Dart, a veteran offensive line, and a deep stable of talented receivers coming back, this year should be no different. But can they stop anyone on defense? Your boy was in the stands last year in Sanford when Georgia throttled them with a combination of depth and superior physicality. In our opinion, will need to demonstrate an ability to stop the run—and run it themselves to avoid putting a potentially vulnerable defense in bad positions—to level up and truly bop with the big boys.
LSU Tigers. Is it getting late early in Baton Rouge for Kelly and his famillleee? Because Jayden Daniels and all those NFL receivers are gone, and 10-3 ain’t the standard on the bayou…
Clemson Tigers. Would likely still be perennial natty contenders if Dabo took his head out of his ass and used the portal (it’s free agency! What are you doing?!) to supplement their roster. Alas, the Tigers are currently playing with one hand behind their backs.
Oklahoma Sooners. Venables looks to have them on the right track, but are they ready to bang in the SEC? A brutal schedule, particularly late, will let us know.
Penn State Nittany Lions. Cool jerseys. Dedicated fanbase. Perennial pretenders.
Tennessee Volunteers. Is Nico Imagonnaleaveyouformycousin the real deal?? I’m sure Vols fans will handle it well if not…(Jokes aside, we see the Vols as a potential surprise package in the SEC.)
USC Trojans. Alright Lincoln, time to earn that Hollywood paycheck. Similar to Ole Miss, it’s going to come down to whether or not they can stop anyone.
Oklahoma State Cowboys. Mullet boy (Pardon! Mullet man!!) returns a ton and will battle Utah for the Big 12 crown, but likely lacks the depth of top-end talent to compete for anything beyond that.
Boise State Broncos. These guys could actually win a natty if they went undefeated. Too bad they won’t (they go to Oregon in week 2, and they’re just not prepared to withstand four playoff games. Still, it’s nice to know they and other programs like them are no longer administratively excluded).
Missouri Tigers. Punchy little outfit returns a ton of proven production and is dangerous, but likely lacks the depth to make a legitimate run at a legitimate prize.
Iowa Hawkeyes. Defense will again be elite, but can their offense be anything other than complete horseshit? We’re not convinced, and frankly we regret listing them here at all.
Colorado Buffaloes. Do not belong here and are not playoff contenders, but we give the people what they want. We expect them to be better this season—they were horrendous last season, in case anyone forgot—particularly along the lines of scrimmage, where they portal’d hard. Should battle for 6-6 and a bowl bid (enjoy that, Travis Hunter!).
A weekly newsletter delivered Fridays during college football season.