In a word…

• Yeah, we know it’s basketball season, but we want to talk FOOTBALL. So be a man, pause that Paul Brothers documentary, and strap in. We’re talking conference realignment.

• Last month, we gamed out the next round of SEC expansion. If you missed it, we highly recommend you check that article out as a precursor to this one, because…

• Today, we’re talking Big Ten. What’s their (and FOX’s) pathway to victory in their war for global domination with the SEC and ESPN? Burt and Bill dive in.

• Alert! The Masters is coming—queue tragic piano music—and the boys are gonna get you prepped! Hell, producer extraordinaire Michael P. may make his authorial debut, so be on the lookout for a special edition early that week (April 8ish).

In our last edition, we explored Burt’s SEC fantasy, a steamy daydream in which ESPN and its favorite son (the SEC) move to defend their turf from a FOX/Big 10 incursion by scooping up—likely in the 2028-2029 timeframe given the structure of the Big Ten’s current TV deal and the ACC schools’ exit fees—FSU, Clemson, Miami, and North Carolina. If you haven’t read that piece, check it out! It lays an important foundation for today’s discussion, where we’ll be taking a look at this great-power struggle from the Big Ten’s (and FOX’s) perspective.

To do that, we’re going to game out, and compare against one another, a couple different hypotheticals: in the first, which we’ll dub “pawn to b4,” the Big Ten makes more incremental moves to moderately expand its footprint, shoring up its existing presence on the East and West Coasts; in the second, which we’ll dub “the queen’s coming out early baby!” the league flops it out and establishes a significant foothold in enemy territory—the South—while simultaneously shedding bad weight.

In our first scenario, with the Southern quartet of FSU, North Carolina, Clemson, and Miami off the table through a preemptive move by the SEC (as detailed by Burt last week), the Big Ten grabs Virginia and Utah ::weak applause::. In doing so, it brings into the fold a highly prestigious institution in a new East Coast/Upper South market for the Big Ten—but one that, admittedly, needs to get its head out of its ass and start investing in football if it wants to mean anything—as well as the now-preeminent power from the Mountain West as a natural partner to the Big Ten’s recent West-Coast additions. Using the same four-pod system I used for a 20-team SEC, here’s what I came up with for a 20-team Big Ten that doesn’t strike south and instead makes more incremental moves for Virginia and Utah while keeping all its existing members onboard:

“Atlantic”

• Penn State
• Michigan
• Maryland
• Virginia
• Rutgers

“Great Lakes”

• Ohio State
• Wisconsin
• Michigan State
• Purdue
• Northwestern

“Prairie”

• Nebraska
• Iowa
• Minnesota
• Indiana
• Illinois

“Pacific”

• Oregon
• Washington
• USC
• UCLA
• Utah

Let’s be honest, folks (and let’s recall the four hypothetical SEC divisions we wrote about last month)... In my opinion, this exercise lays bare EXACTLY why the Big Ten probably makes a move—makes a move…whether it’s successful or not is another matter—for the remaining Southern powers at some point in time. Compare this to Burt’s SEC fantasy, and some of these divisions (cough PRAIRIE! cough GREAT LAKES!) come up looking a liiittle light…When your new Pac-12 pod looks like your strongest, you may have some difficulty winning the war of the worlds with the SEC in the long run…Just my two cents!!

So let’s get a little nuts here in our second hypothetical. Let’s bring that queen out early. Let’s say that the Big Ten (and FOX) read the tea leaves, recognize their need for continued aggression, and become the first of the power leagues to jettison underperforming members. The league “re-homes” Northwestern, Rutgers, and Purdue (sorry Keith!!), bumping its total back down to 15. Perhaps this is initiated by a call from the big dawgs—the Ohio States, Michigans, USCs, etc.—to follow in the footsteps of the ACC and begin divvying up media rights revenue based on the value that each brand actually brings to the league. (As a little history lesson, the Big 12 tried unequal revenue sharing before the Texas and OU divorce…hint: it didn’t save the marriage.) And perhaps schools like Northwestern, Rutgers, and Purdue decide they don’t want to get their heads kicked in every year in a big-boy league where they’re operating at a financial deficit. Instead, they make a move to a league of more like-minded members (Stanford? Wake? Duke? You get the picture. And uh, Rutgers? You may not make that cut…I'm sorry! You'll always have the Sopranos!) However it comes to pass, for purposes of this second scenario, Northwestern, Purdue, and Rutgers are out, leaving the league with 15 members.

The dirty deed done, a revenge-bodied Big Ten looks southward to replace lost fat with muscle, grabbing FSU, Clemson, Miami, and North Carolina. In addition, they grab Utah to provide some connective tissue between the Great Plains and West Coast. (I think Utah’s a strong move either way: a big-boy program with a large and growing fanbase in a rapidly growing state.) This bold move south—something a bunch of LEADERS and LEGENDS might do—could yield a four-division alignment that looks something like this:

“Rust Belt” (more likely “Great Lakes”…but I like “Rust Belt” damnit!)

• Michigan
• Michigan State
• Penn State
• Illinois
• Minnesota

“Prairie”

• Ohio State
• Wisconsin
• Iowa
• Nebraska
• Indiana

"Southeast"

• Florida State
• Miami
• Clemson
• North Carolina
• Maryland

"Pacific"

• Oregon
• Washington
• USC
• UCLA
• Utah

Now you tell me…which of the above scenarios provides a more attractive entity from a media rights perspective? Which one makes the Big Ten more competitive—in the long run—with the SEC?? I’d argue that in both cases it’s pretty clearly the latter. For one, the Big Ten doesn’t need Rutgers and Northwestern to capture the New York City and Chicago markets. They already own them, thanks in large part to the huge numbers of Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin, etc. grads that live in those metropolitan areas. In addition, the inclusion of more blueblood programs in the southern invasion (aka the General Sherman) scenario allows the league to spread those brands more evenly across four divisions, providing far better competitive balance—and much more compelling divisional races—than in the first scenario. Here, both the “Rust Belt” and “Prairie” are fairly strong top to bottom. In the first hypothetical?? Not so much…

Finally, and critically, the southern incursion allows Big Ten schools to recruit in the country’s most talent-rich region behind the pitch that those recruits will play several games in their Big Ten careers within driving distance of friends and family. If the SEC instead scoops up those remaining Southern brands? Then recruits from Florida, Georgia, and other regional hotbeds of talent will never play a conference game closer to home than…Virginia? Indiana?? (Pauses)

Of course, as with our last edition’s examination of a potential SEC expansion, these hypotheticals are mostly gamed out irrespective of contractual complications that look increasingly likely to keep schools like Florida State and Clemson in the ACC for at least a couple more seasons…but I’ll tell you this: contrary to many folks’ initial reaction to the headline, FSU’s and Clemson’s recent decision to settle their lawsuits with the ACC is unequivocally not a sign that the schools are stuck in the ACC. Instead, it offers further confirmation that an exit within the next five or so seasons is not only highly likely—the schools now essentially have an exit date and a price on paper—but also now more economically feasible (as they’ll both be making between $15-20 million dollars per year in the near term). Though ESPN and FOX may prefer to wait until 2030ish to make any additional moves—when both networks’ mega-deals with the SEC and Big Ten are next up—what in god’s name about recent history makes you think those leagues and their patron networks aren’t in this thing to win it? What makes you think they won’t finish the job?

In that vein, here’s my message to the Big Ten: Do you think the SEC and ESPN—who’s made its long-term bet on SEC primacy—are going to stand pat? Do you think the league of Alabama, Georgia, Texas, LSU, Florida and all the others is going to sit still while the Big Ten celebrates multiple consecutive national titles and a (currently) superior per-school media rights payout? Hell no!! If anything, NOW is the time to be bold. NOW is the time to double down. NOW is the time to strike a decisive blow. If you grab the Southern Four, you can make a legitimate case that, while the SEC is a potent regional league, you’re the national power. You’re the league with national title contenders in every region. You’re the league that can deliver marquee matchups all the way from Noon to 10pm Eastern time. You’ve got hoes in different area codes. And you may just have checkmate…

So we’ve (again) done some free map work to show you what that type of Big 10 might look like geographically:

If you’re the Big Ten, you’ve got the SEC surrounded here. Perhaps more importantly—because we’re not playing Risk—between traditional Big Ten heavies like Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State, more recent entrants like USC and Oregon, and the theoretical additions of FSU, Clemson, and Miami, you could boast about as many programs capable of winning a national title as does the SEC. And that, folks, is what’s always set the SEC apart. In the past 20 years, the SEC has always had more serious football programs than any other league. Their depth of heavyweights, in the modern era, is unmatched.

This is the Big Ten’s chance to change that. This Friday morning blog post. Right here.

SO LET’S GET IT ON (Big Ten Commissioner Tony) PETITTI’S DESK!! Who here knows Tony?? Who knows a guy who worked in finance with Tony’s son?? Does he still have those pictures from the strip club?! (To be clear, Burt would prefer the SEC for his ‘Noles, but he’s a desperate, desperate man, and will 100% entertain overtures from either.)

A View from the Badger’s Den

Thank you, Burt. Now for the opinion of a guy who actually follows the Big Ten:

Any discussion regarding the future of the Big Ten begins with a simple, existential question… What in the hell does the Big Ten actually want?

The answer seems rather clear for the SEC. Even in Burt’s wildest fantasies, it’s football and geography. Easy peasy. But since that morning, when the San Andreas ripped through all of college football…that 4th of July weekend, summer of ‘22, the Badger’s half a case deep on an island in the middle of Lake Erie…::gazes wistfully::. Well, after that the Big Ten was no longer a Midwestern conference. Sure, they had a different commissioner then—and Kevin Warren’s expansionist ideals rivaled James Polk’s—but there’s no putting the genie back in the bottle. We’re here, there, and everywhere now.

So back to our burning question: what does the Big Ten want? Following the roadmaps laid out by Burt (that handsome son of a bitch…*), let’s walk you down the different paths to answer that question. (*Editor's note)

Scenario 1: The Big Ten as co-conspirator and the dawn of the P2.

The easiest and most likely path forward. Truthfully, we may be well on our way here. Let’s say the SEC raids the ACC powers, while the Big Ten keeps out of the South and looks to add a pair of new members for an even 20. Sorry Burt, but Virginia and Utah aren’t cutting it. Fortunately, my colleague forgot the cool whip on the ACC pie. The “independent” Notre Dame Fighting Irish, with the ACC in shambles, must be bullied and forced into a permanent home for once and for all. The co-conspiring SEC (of course) agrees: if ND wants to play ball, they need to get in line. Conveniently, this is also an easy solution to creating balanced, attractive divisions. Notre Dame and the Michigan schools anchor the Lakes. Ohio State and Indiana or Purdue head east. And my Badgers take their rightful place in the Prairie… er, DAIRY… division. As for the second team, there is less pressure to hit big with ND in the fold. You have to think they’d look west, perhaps with an eye toward easing travel burdens. My instincts would lean more toward Stanford than Utah for reasons beyond football, but the idea is right. Ultimately, I would expect something like this to happen in the next major shake-up.

Scenario 2: The Big Ten goes Rust Belt to Sun Belt, but keeps its integrity.

What if the Big Ten goes after ACC schools—but not the ones you’d expect? Admittedly, this feels a bit half-baked, but it speaks to the bigger picture of what the Big Ten is and at least, historically, what it wants to be. North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, and Georgia Tech have Big Ten ideals in their DNA. Are they needle movers in football? Of course not. Are they academic juggernauts with fruitful territory to offer the Big Ten footprint? Absolutely. Next to Notre Dame, UNC is likely the Big Ten’s top target. Monsters in basketball, untapped potential in football, huge fanbase, and a rapidly emerging media market. No surprise the SEC would want them too…So who comes with? They could take two, or they could take four. Scheduling would be messy, but it already is. Duke is similar to UNC (with shittier football), but that rivalry sells. It’s worth $$$ to the networks. GT will never top the ‘Dawgs in their home state, but the Big Ten could plant a flag in Atlanta by adding the Bumblebees. Virginia would be the least desirable on paper, but locks up the Mid-Atlantic. When prompted by a UNC-UVA duo to the Big Ten, Burt conceded that the schools may actually prefer it “because they’re both snobby.” Exsqueeze me…what’s more Big Ten than that?! It’s kind of our thing!

Academic prowess matters to Big Ten presidents, particularly membership in the AAU research organization. Seventeen of the 18 schools are in it. Nebraska isn’t, only because they were cast out after joining the Big Ten…Clemson might as well be the University of Phoenix. Florida State has pushed for AAU status in recent years, but failed to make the cut. And while Miami was added in 2023, they’re a culture fit for the Big Ten like Tabasco in a shot of tequila. If you’ve ever hit a Prairie Fire, you already get it...

The Big Ten simply grabbing the largest remaining football programs, all else be damned, just feels out of character. Certainly not in the next round of realignment. My take: No Big Ten program is getting axed while Big Ten football is being played. Does some future "super league" ultimately split the haves and have-nots? Probably, but the leftovers will be the ones playing a traditional conference slate. For now though, if the Big Ten wants to expand into new regions, it may look more like an annexation than a full blown invasion.

Final thoughts and the future

Whether it’s 2031 or sooner, the ACC appears primed to go full supernova and scatter its remains across the country. The Big Ten and SEC (along with the Big 12, who I expect will grab Pitt, Louisville, and SMU at least), will grow and tighten their stranglehold on college athletics.

I just can’t help but wonder…then what?

Is the future of the sport a cozy table for two forever? Can a super league actually attract enough schools to blow up the system without bloating itself to pointlessness? Are there enough schools with real added value for the P2 to keep expanding without inevitably going after each other? Take Missouri. A Midwestern school more akin to Illinois, Iowa and Nebraska than their SEC counterparts. How about Texas A&M? They’ve already fled the Longhorn shadow once before to be the SEC’s "only" Texas team. Could be an attractive option to hold the same mantle in the Big Ten.

Maybe the real war between the SEC and Big Ten has yet to even take shape. Stay tuned to stay ahead of the game.

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