For the Lazy Ones…

• Georgia did the damn thing in Austin, while Tennessee bagged itself a trophy buck on the Third Saturday in October.
• We preview a decent slate this week, as an ahead-of-schedule Texas A&M hosts a (peaking?) LSU, and an undefeated Navy hosts Notre Dame in the sailors’ biggest game since…the Battle of Midway?
• Do you have something you’d like to say to us? Have we gotten you a little…hot under the collar at some point?? Let us hear about it by responding directly to this email, and who knows…maybe we’ll respond in our next newsletter (below we respond to a mouthy Duke fan).
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Burt’s Rapid Fire Takeaways (RFTs)

Georgia (finally) starts hot, outlasts No. 1 Texas in gigantic road win.

What a fucking game from Kirby Smart’s boys, and in an environment that genuinely felt—at least as far as I could tell as I watched on my 8 year-old iphone from my friend’s wedding ceremony—like that of a national title game. Georgia was the aggressor from the outset. The Dawgs’ offense hit some chunk runs (gross…) to loosen the Longhorn defense up (eh-nice!), then took some successful chances—including a sexy flea-flicker—down the field. Smart’s defense was not only tough and assignment-sound but also made a series of game-changing plays—a strip-sack from Daylen Everette, a pick from Everette (who had an absolutely monster game), several impactful pressures from stud linebacker Jalon Walker, who had three sacks and a fumble recovery—as Texas turned it over four times and Georgia, critically, cashed those extra possessions in for touchdowns. Texas, on the other hand, couldn’t get it out of neutral in the first half, eventually turning to backup quarterback Arch Manning in search of a spark late in the second quarter before bringing regular starter Quinn Ewers back in the second half. The Longhorns did pick Carson Beck off three times, but only scored off one of those turnovers. Things are all kinds of weird in Austin now: 247Sports published—but then deleted—a story saying that Ewers was foregoing the rest of the season to prepare for the NFL draft. Doesn’t sound great. Still, we view both these teams as near playoff locks, and Texas will certainly be fighting to earn a rematch with our Dawgs. Our question is…do they really want it??

Tennessee bags itself a trophy buck as Alabama’s margin shrinks.

Another phenomenal game, and this one ended in a massive resume-building win for the Vols. For Alabama, their margin is now very, very slim. Which team is the Crimson Tide? The team that jumped Georgia and held on for what looked like a season-defining win a few weeks ago? Or the one that lost to Vandy, scratched and clawed its way to a close early-season win against USF, and then let a late lead slip against Tennessee? We still think Jalen Milroe’s one of the ultimate neutralizers in the college game. When he’s on, the Tide are extremely tough to hang with. But he’s not always on. What is Alabama when he’s not? Are they dominant enough everywhere else on the field—like they’ve been so often in the past—to overcome it? They’ll quickly get two more opportunities to prove themselves, as they host Missouri this week before traveling to face Da Cajun Maniac Brian Kelly’s resurgent LSU squad the second weekend in November. Tennessee gets a week off to enjoy this one—we’re sure Morgan Wallen’s partying responsibly—before hosting an unpredictable Kentucky squad next week and then traveling to Athens for an absolutely momentous showdown with the ‘Dawgs in mid-November.

It’s time to talk Iowa State. I don’t want to, but we have to…

Alright, they haven’t really played anybody—their best win is either by a single point in a crazy (and, admittedly, awesome) comeback over a decent but highly unbalanced Iowa team, or a nice road win at, again, a decent West Virginia team—but the Iowa State Cyclones are now 7-0 and in pole position in the Big 12. Here’s the dirty little secret: With Utah looking uncharacteristically vulnerable, the Cyclones are tracking toward being 11-0 (!!) when they head into a huge Week 13 tilt against Kansas State. Their schedule’s not going to give them much, if any, margin for error, but Matt Campbell’s upstart Cyclones are very much in the playoff hunt at the midway point of the season. Kudos to my brothers out there on the plains.

Is SMU going to win the ACC in year one??

No. But it’s impressive what they’re doing. If the Mustangs were in the Big 12—who has somehow outflanked the sorry ass ACC from a PR perspective—they’d likely be getting more love, but we’ll give them their flowers here: They’ve proven themselves more than ready for major-conference play, and we think they’ve got a really good head coach in former Auburn and Miami offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee. Given their location in Texas and their wealthy alumni base’s willingness to back a legit ::pinkie to mouth:: payroll (the Mustangs were famously hit with the NCAA’s “death penalty” for legitimately keeping a player payroll back in the 80’s…), SMU looks like a program on the rise.

Week 9’s Bodacious Bouts

#12 Notre Dame at #24 Navy

Noon ET, ABC, Notre Dame -13.5

By Billy Lowry aka Badger Bill

Goose…Maverick…Horvath. It just rolls off the tongue.

We’ve got a dogfight Saturday as the United States Naval Academy goes to battle against the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame, and the stakes are higher than an F-18 in a vertical maneuver. 

For the 6-0 Midshipmen, it’s an opportunity both for a signature win and to plant their flag as the Group of Five’s best. The looming and potentially extremely awkward—we’ll explain why—showdown with undefeated Army (who also gets Notre Dame next month) for the AAC championship game and potential automatic playoff spot gets closer by the week, whatever the hell that means for the traditional Army-Navy Game a week later…That’s right, Army and Navy may face off twice in a row at the end of the season, with their traditional final-week meeting coming after the playoff field is announced…Yeesh…The CFB ventriloquists definitely did not see this one coming. But all that means little to less if the Irish have their say over the coming weeks.

For Notre Dame, their stunning Week 2 upset at the hands of Northern Illinois means every game is win or go home as the Irish look to secure a playoff berth for which most had them penciled in in the preseason. One G5 loss is hard enough to overcome. Two is a nail in the coffin.

While the Midshipmen have ever so slightly upgraded their offense from the triple-option to a hybrid Wing-T, it’s quarterback Blake Horvath’s arm that has truly revolutionized Navy’s attack. Ranked third in total Quarterback Rating (QBR) with 10 passing touchdowns and another 10 on the ground, he’s on pace to have the best season for a Navy quarterback in decades. On the other side, the Notre Dame defense appears up for the challenge. Sitting solidly 10th in yards per game, their scoring defense is their true calling card. Just 11.9 points allowed. Fifth in the nation. That’s rugged. Navy’s offense? Number 4 at 44.8. That means both units are aces (much like Maverick and Iceman). Who has the game to take Top Gun?? 

Badger Bill’s Pick: My game picks have been atrocious (an emerging theme here at TTM?), so my preemptive apologies to the Midshipmen…But this one’s for country, and Blake Horvath is America’s wingman. Navy 31-28.

#8 LSU at #14 Texas A&M

7:30pm ET, ABC, Texas A&M -1.5

By Sam Ranson aka BurtReynolds69

Huge game here for Brian Kelly’s Tigers, who would truly vault themselves into the SEC title race—and the playoff discussion—with a win at Kyle Field. On the flip, a massive opportunity for Mike Elko’s Aggies, as the first-year head man can once again prove that his rebuild is way ahead of schedule. Now, LSU was pretty fortunate to survive both South Carolina and Ole Miss, and their Week 1 loss to USC is looking less and less excusable as the Trojans take their customary mid-season nosedive, but the fact is…the Bayou Bengals handled a tricky trip to Arkansas last week and now find themselves at 6-1 and right in the thick of it in a rough-and-tumble SEC.

This is going to be a raucous environment. Say what you will about the Aggies’ actual record in big-time home games (it ain’t great), but in a game of this magnitude, at night, and with the Aggie faithful feeling ultra confident in what we feel is a very well-coached team, Kyle Field will be extremely imposing on Saturday night. Both of these teams will want to run the football: A&M runs it nearly 65% of the time, leaning on stud tailback (and Baton Rouge native) Le’Veon Moss, while LSU has one of the best offensive lines in the country. We say it all the time around here, but pay close attention in the first half to which of these teams is able to get to 2nd and 6, and then 3rd and 3 (aka 3rd and manageable) through an effective early-down run game. IF neither team is able to establish that pressure-alleviating run game, we probably trust LSU’s pass game a bit more given quarterback Garrett Nussmeier’s big-game experience and his talented group of pass catchers. 

Burt’s pick: Extremely tough one to project, but I’m going to back the more experienced head coach/quarterback combo, and trust that Kelly’s Tigers are peaking at the right time. LSU wins a tight, physical battle, 27-24.

BoxSlayer’s Weekly Boondoggle

To the Boxslayer faithful, I have failed you…I underestimated how annoying the Vols truly are, and how tough a task Neyland is at night. Also kind of hard to overcome that environment when you’re running goofy plays—two wideouts pretending to shoot basketballs??—and when a typically disciplined Tide squad commits 15 penalties. Missing Saban much?? On to Week 9 and Boxslayer’s trademark Lock of the Week:

Big Box’s 5-Unit Lock of the Week – Navy +14

Two touchdowns to one of the most exciting teams in the country, on a neutral field?? Admiral Ackbar may be screaming his lungs out on this one (“IT’S A TRAP!!”), but Navy scores points in droves and I don’t see this Notre Dame team putting up enough points to cover a spread that big. Give me the troops and put 5 units on it.

Boxslayer’s Trademark 5-game Parlay (let’s keep it at 1 unit)

Indiana-Washington UNDER 54.5 – I think Indiana wins a close one, but not having Rourke is a problem and should keep this one fairly low-scoring.

Ole Miss -20 – Ole Miss needs a statement game and Oklahoma stinks. Boxslayer likes the Rebs, and by a lot.

Ohio -6 – My heart wants to take the over—it’s the MAC… but Ohio -6 is the safer play. Let’s go fake Athens!!

BYU -2 – Better team getting points. Enough said.

Texas -18.5 – Texas needs a bounceback game. Vandy’s win against Alabama is looking less and less impressive. The Horns take out their frustration in Nashville in front of a likely mostly Texas crowd.

Badger Bill’s B1G Lock of the Week

If the oddsmakers are going to make it this easy, then let’s keep it easy. Tayven Jackson has the goods. Copy, paste, print.

Indiana is the surprise team of the year, and while the schedule has been light, they’ve handled their business with authority. What has Nebraska I mean Washington done to make you believe they can play spoiler on the road? Back the Hoosiers at -6.5.

NEW! Responding to Mouthy Readers…

From regular reader JoeDLux: “Making fun of Duke? Real creative. Coach K is the goat, and only public school peasants are unwilling to admit that : )”

Burt’s response: What a Dookie…Look, we’re smarter than to question K’s coaching chops (click here if you’re curious as to the original Polish pronunciation of Krzyzewski). He’s an all-timer. But that mother fucker could get a call—or five—like no other. He had the refs in the palm of his hand. FSU once had a guy—Alexander Johnson, who was absolutely dominating Duke in Cameron at the time—get thrown out of a game for getting shoved by a Duke player!! Anyway, congrats on Duke football’s first-ever win over my ‘Noles…We’re 1-22! We’re 1-22! ::chanting:: (Also, thanks for reading brother!)

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