TLDR

• Yeah, we can’t believe it either…Penn State lost the big one.
• Georgia looked sloppy (again) ahead of a sexy matchup with Ole Miss, as we preview a solid slate this weekend.
• Are you enjoying TTM? Good! Help us grow this biatch by forwarding to a friend—or simply entering a friend’s email here!

Burt’s Week 10 RFTs

By Sam Ranson aka BurtReynolds69

You’ll never guess what happened at Beaver Stadium…

Penn State lost to Ohio State! Holy shit!! I’m sorry Nittany Lion fans, I don’t mean to throw salt in the wound. I mean that. I’ve lived the life of a fan of a team that gives you hope but can never quite get over the hump (see Mark Richt’s entire tenure at Georgia), and I know how agonizing and paralyzing—are we really going to fire a guy who wins 10 games every year?—that can be. But once again, James Franklin’s Nittany Beavers came up short against the Buckeyes, who bagged themselves a crucial win for their playoff resume, and who now have an inside track at a Big Ten championship berth (and a rematch with Oregon), assuming they handle an upstart Indiana squad in a couple weeks.

Georgia survives slopfest ahead of dangerous trip to the Grove.

And no, I don’t mean dangerous like the Grove is dangerous to a drunk married man…I mean dangerous because when Ole Miss gets it going, that star burns bright. Florida finished this game on a third-string quarterback and struggled mightily to move the ball throughout, but had Georgia knotted in a nervy, 20-20 battle in the fourth quarter (huge credit to Napier for keeping this group engaged—more than I can say for my Seminoles), as Georgia continues to put themselves in precarious positions against teams they should steamroll. I’d written more here initially, but Dr. Chim Richalds covers the ‘Dawgs better than I, so scroll down for his brawny preview of Georgia-Ole Piss.

TTM’s Big 12 curse continues.

Any time we anoint a team the likely Big 12 favorite, they lose. See: Iowa State this past week. Or Kansas State weeks before. Or Utah before that. Or Oklahoma State before that. Watch out: BYU this week. Apologies Cougars!

Louisville holds that tiger, puts Clemson’s playoff hopes on life support.

It looked like Dabo had the Tigers rolling to a high-profile ACC championship game matchup with Miami and a potential playoff berth…and then Louisville came into Death Valley on Saturday night and blew the Country Gentlemen out. What a weird year…Just when you think you know something, the rug is ripped out from under you…Great road win for Jeff Brohm’s Cardinals, who seem likely to be a solid outfit for years to come, but we do need to note this on Clemson: Dabo’s Disciples are 5-1 in conference and very much remain in the ACC title hunt, which means that although they now have zero margin, they could still make the playoff by winning the conference.

Lil’ Beamer’s defying the odds in Columbia.

What a gigantic win for South Carolina, as the ‘Cocks blew out a tough, well-coached Texas A&M team to the soundtrack of Sandstorm last Saturday night (duccuh-duccuh duh duh! Duccuh-duccuh duh duh! Duccuh-duccuh-duh duh duccuh-duccuh duh duh!!! God, what a song…Wake fans, you know what I’m talking about!!). In all seriousness, it’s awful impressive what Shane Beamer’s doing: he’s reversing a downward slide—extremely difficult to do in this game—and doing it against a tough, essentially old school SEC West schedule. Those ‘Cock boys in Columbia have to be feeling really good right now, as they appear to have a resilient young coach with a talented core of young players. Now we’ll see if they can take another step next season (10 wins, perhaps?), which is always where the

Week 11’s Supple Samplings

#3 Georgia at #16 Ole Miss

3:30pm ET, ABC, Georgia -2.5

By Michael Brown aka Dr. Chim Richalds

I got married in a Catholic church last weekend, so it seems fitting to start this preview off with a confession: Forgive me, my fellow college football enjoyers, for I have sinned. About a year ago, MY WIIIFFEE and I scheduled our nuptials to take place half an hour before kick of the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. College Gameday dedicated a whole segment to this friendship-ending no-no already this season, but it was out of our control. We tried our damndest to get married on a Georgia bye weekend, but venues get booked early, and our hands were tied (VERY NICE!!!). I angled to have the priest issue a plea of forgiveness on our behalf during, but he apparently isn’t a fan of jokes (or college football). So again, I ask for forgiveness.

While we were taking our vows, the ‘Dawgs were warming to take on the Gators and their denim-clad fanbase. If you’re a ‘Dawg fan examining the schedule in August, this is like the 8th scariest game. It’s a rivalry game, yes, and a big one, but the Gators under Napier aren’t all that spooky, despite it being Halloween weekend and despite their offense showing flutters of a heartbeat over the past couple weeks.

Enter Carson Beck, the reason for, and (at times) the solution to a lot of Georgia problems. I’m seeing a lot of similarities between 2024 Beck and 2019 Jameis Winston, the season the latter threw 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. If Beck doesn’t have vision problems that could be corrected by either Rec SpecsTM or surgery, then he’s got bigger issues that I’m too scared to dive into. Dr. Richalds has always been a guy who goes off feels. I felt awful going into the ‘Bama game. I felt INCREDIBLE going into Texas (and I have the texts to prove it). I felt like Florida, with Georgia coming off a bye after their momentous win in Austin, could be a trap game. The first thing I saw when my wife and I got to our reception venue was a classic Beck interception, followed by a deep Florida touchdown pass, followed by another Beck interception. We were able to turn it around and come out with the W, but how many more times can we escape giving the ball away three to four times?

Pardon the digression, but all of this is to say that this week’s matchup in Oxford—one of the four legitimately scary games on Georgia’s schedule—hinges on which Carson Beck decides to show up. If he plays the type of game we grew accustomed to last season, hitting his receivers in stride and opening up the run game, the ‘Dawgs should leave the Sip (gag) with another impressive road win. If the 2024 version of Beck persists, does the defense have it in them to shut down a high-powered Ole Miss offense and create turnovers of their own to negate the errors committed on the offensive side of the ball?

Luckily for Georgia, the Ole Miss injury report for this week is LOOOOOOONG (26 designations), and is highlighted by the doubtful designation of stud wide receiver Tre Harris. Ole Miss can put up points without Harris, as demonstrated by the 63 they dropped on the road at Arkansas last weekend, but the Hawgs ain’t the Dawgs. I feel great about this game.

Dr. Chim Richalds’ Pick: I can’t trust Beck to eliminate the errors he’s been committing, but I do trust Mykel Williams, Jalon Walker, Malachi Starks and the rest of that defense. The Dawgs scurry into Oxford and leave with the W, 35-20.

#9 BYU at Utah

10:30pm ET, ESPN, BYU -3

By Billy Lowry aka Badger Bill

“I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers. And you will know my name is the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon thee.”

Amen, Jules…It’s the mother fucking Holy War, back after a near-decade-long estrangement.

You wouldn’t have batted an eye two months ago if I told this game featured an 8-0 squad, alone atop the conference standings, taking on a slumping .500 group that is lacking identity. But it’s which team that’s undefeated that’s sending shockwaves down the Wasatch Front. BYU, picked in the preseason as a Big 12 bottom dweller, has tossed itself into playoff contention on the strong arm of college football’s biggest oddball. The square peg in the round hole. The fish out of water. Moses alone on Mt. Sinai. The self-anointed “BY-Jew.”

JUCO transfer quarterback Jake Retzlaff's rise from obscurity to potential Big 12 player of the year, with his Rabbi in tow and sick merch, represents everything we love about the sport. But, if the Cougars magical run is to continue, Retzlaff will have to do something no BYU quarterback has done since 2006…part the red Salt Lake and get a W at Rice-Eccles Stadium.

The Utes entered the year with sky-high expectations given both the return of legendary 7th-year QB Cam Rising from injury and the fact they were coming off back-to-back Pac-12 titles. But new injuries emerged for Rising, and he could never consistently keep himself available before shutting it down for good. With no good option to take the reins, Utah’s season went down quicker than MomTok at a key party (god we hope some ladies are still reading, because that’s an elite reference). Four straight wins followed by four straight losses. But spoiling BYU’s perfect season would mean everything to Utah’s fanbase, and the Utes will come out swinging. If their offense still can’t get it together, there’s always Rising’s 8th year of eligibility. Maybe he can finish his doctorate. Too little, too late if Retzlaff gets it done first. Crown him the King of Jewtah.

Badger Bill’s Pick: BYU doesn’t win at Utah. Kyle Whittingham has the kind of sneaky good defense you’d expect from him, giving up just 16.5 points per game. Can it be an upset if Goliath beats David? Utes 21-17.

#11 Alabama at #15 LSU

7:30pm ET, ABC, Alabama -2.5

By Sam Ranson aka BurtReynolds69

Here we have it folks…Alabama walks into a booze-soaked Death Valley at night. Brian “Da Massachusetts Cajun” Kelly wipes the store-bought frozen gumbo from his mouth and girds his loins for a battle that could define his tenure at LSU (and, it follows, his coaching career). Kalen DeBoer gets his first taste of one of the SEC’s grand rivalries (Alabama’s recent dominance notwithstanding…). 

Only this isn’t a matchup of undefeated, top five teams…Both these teams come into this game with two losses and fairly obvious flaws. THAT SAID (calm down, my loyal Alabama and LSU readers), both these teams are highly capable of playing at a top five level, and both are still very much in the playoff hunt. Which one does it on Saturday night? Whichever does…they’re still in the fight. Whichever doesn’t? They’re probably done (although ESPN happens to love/have an ungodly amount of money invested in the SEC, so we’ll see on that one…).

My keys to the game: Is Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe fully healthy? Is he the guy who completely sliced and diced a rugged Georgia defense a little over a month ago? Or is he the guy who struggled for significant stretches of the Tennessee and South Carolina games? There’s smoke in Tuscaloosa that he may be dealing with an undisclosed lower-body ailment, and for me, Milroe’s the (fairly) obvious key to this game. If he gets a shot of that good stuff pregame and is moving like we know he can, I’m all Tide in this one, because I don’t trust LSU’s defense as far as Brian Kelly could throw a horny ‘n’ ornery alligatuh through da swamp! If Milroe looks tentative (i.e. injured), and if Alabama’s oft-penalized offense gets bogged down and behind the chains early—they’re not good in obvious passing downs—then this game could follow a very Tiguh-friendly game script: LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who can really sling it but will also occasionally sling it to the other team, and his talented receiving corps start hot and the Tide find themselves in an early hole in an extremely hostile environment.

But I don’t think that’s how this one plays out. I think that while they’re extremely talented in spots (wide receiver, offensive line), LSU is flawed in others and is probably lucky not to have more losses than they do. My gut tells me Milroe comes out of the bye looking healthier, and I think ‘Bama’s the better team top to bottom.

Burt’s pick: This game will have fireworks, and LSU will fight like hell to defend its turf against a hated rival, but Milroe’s the best player in this game, and I remain unconvinced that the Kelly experiment yields long-term dividends in Baton Rouge. Alabama 31-27.

NEW HEAT! Totaling Up TTM Expert Picks

It’s time for some god damn accountability around here, so Burt lifted the hood on the ole’ Trans-Am this week and totaled up all our “expert” pickers’ game picks against the spread (ATS) this season. The results??

Badger Bill ATS: 8-4—Bill was ahead of the curve on Illinois and Indiana…do we have ourselves a Midwest sharp here folks??

BurtReynolds69 ATS: 5-6—Burt knows he’s better than this, and you know he is too. Bet with him for an extremely sexy time.

Dr. Chim Richalds ATS: 3-4—Chim was too busy getting married to worry about making you money…fade him accordingly.

BoxSlayer ATS: 13-17—Pick it up Box! (In all fairness, the Box Man is our workhorse. He’s picking 6 games each week. Much more exposure than the rest of us, and BoxSlayer is known to get…SUPER hot.)

Total staff ATS: 29-31—We fucking know you’re down more this season…don’t lie to us. Ride with us and your significant other won’t leave you, because you’ll only lose a little bit, and you’ll still have a whale of a time doing it…

BoxSlayer’s Weekly Cash Grab

Haven’t delivered in a couple weeks…that’s on the Boxslayer. However, Vegas has off weeks, and this particular week looks like an opportunity to aggressively jump on some questionable spreads. Honestly, I’d swap any of the six bets below as my Lock of the Week, but the Boxslayer LOVES Iowa State. Cyclone Country, LET’S RIDE.

5-Unit Lock of the Week: Iowa State -3
Boxslayer has and always will be a feel guy. This is a feel call, but the stats are glaringly obvious. Kansas is 4-12 ATS versus ranked opponents in its last 16 contests, is horrendous at home in the month of November, and are 70 th in scoring defense against a very good ISU offense. All signs point to Iowa State here. Bet the house.

Boxslayer’s Trademark 5-game, 1-unit parlay:

Miami -11
Haynes King is a game-time decision and Boxslayer’s sources are telling him he’s likely out. Miami scores a billion and covers the spread.

Navy -3.5
Let’s not forget this was a team that many “pundits” said might beat ND outright. South Florida isn’t very good, and Navy is pissed coming off back-to-back losses. Ask Japan what happens when you piss off the US Navy…

Clemson -6
Reeling off a bad loss, Clemson puts on a show to get back into the conversation. Sorry Hokies…Hard Times will forever live in my heart…

Army -4
Feels like a trap game, but it’s not. Army is good and will look to run up the score to garner some respect from the Playoff Committee.

South Carolina -4.5
Not gonna lie, the Gamecocks have fucked the Boxslayer a few times this year. This time, I’m on their side and I like them coming off a huge win against A&M to take care of Vandy on the road.

Badger Bill’s B1G Lock of the Week

Minnesota is playing very good football. Rutgers is not. What’s a touchdown between old coaching friends? Back the Gophers at -6.5.