TLDR

• We tier it out one more time this season…Who’s a lock for the playoffs? Who’s a contender? Read more to find out!!
• Tennessee steps between the hedges on Saturday night as Boise State superfreak Ashton Jeanty continues his Heisman campaign—watch this kid while you can folks.
• Do you feel like our talented and sexy stable of writers are a bunch of shameless Georgia homers? Are you tired of reading Badger Bill's love letters to Bret Bielema? Let us hear about it by responding directly to this email, and perhaps we'll address your smoke in a future edition...

Burt’s Final Regular Season Team Tiers

Well god damn…You wait all year for it, and then it rockets past like Wile E. on a TNT-studded missile. Here we are entering the final month of the regular season folks…

For some of us—Florida State fans, Michigan fans, Washington fans, Florida fans—that news likely comes as a relief. For others—Oregon fans, Miami fans, Tennessee fans, Texas fans—you’re living one of those seasons you do your best to savor, because you know from experience that they don’t come around all that often. And for others still—Ohio State fans, Georgia fans, Alabama fans, Penn State fans—that news may startle you, because you know your team could do something meaningful this year, but you’re not sure if there’s enough time for them to get their shit together—or perhaps whether the right things are going to happen around them—for your guys to make a run.

As we enter this final month, we thought it’d be appropriate for Burt to share his final “Team Tiers” of the season. A quick note before he does: as we discussed in the preseason, college football is in a state of flux. Some of the things that are happening right now are unsavory and unsustainable—there’s no doubt about that—but the notion, shared by so many a year or two ago, that the advent of NIL and the transfer portal would simply lead to a further concentration of top talent among a handful of powerhouse programs is being proven wrong before our very eyes, and we here at TTM are fucking here for it! How fun was Vandy over ‘Bama? Vandy over Auburn?? Vandy over anyone??? Still, we know many of you are nonplussed over the current state of the sport, so we’ll reiterate our thesis from the summertime: This will all get worked out. Just enjoy the ride. And while we have you in that hypnotic state…Subscribe all your friends to the newsletter. They’ll thank you later. Alright, to the tiers!!

Note: as we lay out these teams’ resumes, we’re including a couple helpful symbols, based on Jeff Sagarin’s long-utilized RPI ratings: $ = Top 10 win. ₵ = Top 30 win.

Playoff Locks—well this seems like a stupid name now…is anyone really a lock in this shitshow??

Oregon Ducks (10-0, $, ₵₵)

But it’s hard not to go ahead and lock these quacks in. They’re undefeated (with a win over another likely playoff team in Ohio State), they’re a brand (let’s go Nike!), they’re in a Power 2 conference, and they’re extremely unlikely to enter Selection Sunday with more than one loss on their resume. The Ducks are in.

Playoff Contenders—these boys are squarely in the mix and may even have a bit of margin to work with. If they take care of business, they should be in:

Texas Longhorns (8-1, ₵₵)

Solidly in the field right now—albeit without any terribly impressive wins (that Michigan win aged like Wisconsin milk)—but with a momentous revival of their nasty rivalry with Texas A&M coming up at the end of the month, following two potential landmines against Arkansas (sneaky sexy old Southwest Conference rivalry) and Kentucky. They’re right in the thick of it and could probably afford one more loss, but the ‘Horns can’t dick around with their remaining schedule.

BYU Cougars (9-0, ₵₵)

Hoo boy…BYU was probably lucky to sneak out of last week with a win over arch rival Utah, but the Cougars will take it any way they can get it as they remain unbeaten. Kilani Sitake’s (cool name) team of 26 year-old missionaries will obviously make the playoff if they win out—but what if they lose the Big 12 championship game? Will the committee, who so far seems quite motivated to promote the Power 2—the Big Ten does not have a good record against other power conferences this season, by the way…they’re 7-9, versus the SEC’s 10-5, the ACC’s 9-9, and the Big 12’s 5-9—really allow two Big 12 teams into the field? The answer is…we have no idea. We certainly have an idea of who they’d like to stack the field with (big-name Power 2 programs), but how far will they go to do so? That’s the million dollar question.

Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1, $, ₵₵)

The Bucknuts have Northwestern, Indiana, and Michigan left and…Indiana??...is the biggest of the three? Great story there in Bloomington this season, but we expect Ohio State to overwhelm Cigs’ guys in the Horseshoe, and then I, Burt, would probably bet on a ritualistic blood-letting the next week against hated rival Michigan, who has ruined several Buckeye seasons in recent memory. If Ohio State takes care of business, they likely earn a rematch with Oregon in the Big Ten championship game, and even with a loss there, we think they’re in the field (again, big-name Power 2).

Tennessee Volunteers (8-1, $, ₵₵₵)

Massive game for the Vols this weekend, who could virtually lock up a playoff spot with a road win over Georgia. Is Nico healthy enough to go? Or is Tennessee head man Bobby Hill just playing little baby games with our ‘Dawgs? We’ll find out at about 7:25 on Saturdee night, just ahead of a matchup where the trench play—particularly between the Vols’ elite defensive line and Georgia’s banged-up and much-maligned, but still supremely talented, offensive line—has us licking our chops.

Miami Hurricanes (9-1, ₵₵)

Fucking finally…These jabronis tempted fate one too many times, and Georgia Tech pipped ‘em. Still, Miami’s in position to make the ACC championship game, and would likely be the betting favorite there, where a win would not only put the Hurricanes directly into the playoff, but would grant them a first round bye. We’ve said it all year: Miami’s offense is elite, and their trench play on both sides of the ball has improved immensely over the past couple seasons. But their defense has grown increasingly leaky in the second half of the season, and as a team they seem to lack the killer instinct that championship teams tend to exhibit, both trends that make us question how effective they’d be in a big-boy battle in the ‘yoff.

Alabama Crimson Tide (7-2, $$, ₵₵₵₵)

Jalen Milroe man…The Alabama quarterback was the best athlete on the field against LSU last week, and when he’s healthy and being used properly, that Tide offense is extremely difficult to contain. Though they have two losses, ‘Bama arguably has the best combination of wins in the country (Georgia, LSU, a vastly improved South Carolina), and if they run the table against reeling Oklahoma and Auburn, they’ll be comfortably in the field.

Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1, ₵)

Has Penn State beaten anyone of note? Not really. But the Nittany Lions have taken care of business against less talented opponents, are 8-1, and are right in the thick of the playoff hunt. Their path to the Big 10 title game is probably blocked—Ohio State has the head-to-head tiebreaker and Oregon looks unlikely to drop one, let alone two, of their remaining conference games—and that may actually be a blessing in disguise for James Franklin’s Nittany Beavers. If they can sweep their last three of Purdue, Minnesota, and Maryland, can you really keep an 11-1 Penn State out? I don’t think so. For Penn State, it’s win and you’re in, and then we’ll get to see—together with our friends from Happy Valley—whether this program is ready to take the next step.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1, ₵₵)

Hate it all you want, fans of (insert Southern team), but Notre Dame’s squarely on course to make the ‘yoff and get blasted by said Southern team (I’m kidding! They might not!!). As always, the Irish are stout up front, they have a talented, veteran-laden defense, and they’re equipped to out-physical less imposing teams (as they did to my hapless ‘Noles last week…). But the million Lira question remains: Are they skilled enough to win playoff games against teams that don’t shrink against their physicality? Can quarterback Riley Leonard make high-level throws in a pressurized environment against a big-boy opponent? We’re fittin’ to find out…

Indiana Hoosiers (10-0)

You can see it right there next to their record…no top 10 wins, no top 30 wins. To be fair, Cignetti’s guys simply haven’t had the opportunity. But the year-over-year improvement is diabolical, and the Hoosiers absolutely deserve to be in the playoff hunt. Now let’s see if they can make it a game in the Horseshoe next week…

Knocking at the Door—these guys are right there, but likely must win out and may need some help:

Ole Miss Rebels (7-2, $$, ₵₵₵)

Georgia Bulldogs (7-2, $, ₵₵₵)

Boise State Broncos (8-1)

Army Black Knights (9-0)

SMU Mustangs (8-1, ₵₵)

Texas A&M Aggies (7-2, ₵₵₵)

Clemson Tigers (7-2)

Colorado Buffaloes (7-2)

Week 12’s Titillating Tales

#6 Tennessee at #11 Georgia

7:30pm ET, ESPN, Georgia -10

By Dr. Chim Richalds

Burt told you all to fade me last week—I hope you listened.

Lemme get one thing off my chest and then I’ll feed you piggies this slop of a preview for the Vols versus the ‘Dawgs this Saturday night in the Classic City. I can’t stand to look at Carson Beck anymore. Just the human embodiment of smug, false confidence. What happened between last year and this year? Yes, a tremendous amount of receiving talent left Athens for the NFL, but the guy taking snaps this season has mostly looked scared, incompetent, and, worst of all, uninterested. It’s like some Freaky Friday shit where Carson Beck and Uncle Rico went out for a few beers in the offseason, took a drunken piss in the same urinal trough, lightning struck, and now they’ve switched bodies. At least Uncle Rico wasn’t afraid to sling it…

Beck has now thrown 12 (!!) interceptions this season, and the nerves of Georgia fans are palpable when he initiates a three-step drop. It’s not all his fault…the ‘Dawgs also lead the FBS in dropped passes, salt in the wound for the rare occasions that Beck doesn’t toss a softball up for opposing DBs.

Still, this is the same Kirby Smart-led bunch that beat then-#1 Texas in Austin, and came within feet of turning around a doomed game in Tuscaloosa a few weeks prior. The ‘Dawgs are now razor-thin at running back with starter Trevor Etienne having just been ruled out and with depth piece Cash Jones also dinged. That leaves Nate Frazier as the only healthy back who’s seen substantial time this season. Hopefully this is his breakout game.

It won’t be easy, as the Vols’ defensive front has been extremely disruptive all season, leading a Tennessee D that ranks among the tops in the nation in total defense. Those boys up front will play a big factor in determining who wins and who dies. On offense, the Vols come into the weekend with a big question mark at quarterback. Nico Iamaleava is questionable to suit up after leaving last week’s game against Mississippi State as a precautionary measure and subsequently being placed in concussion protocol. If he can’t play, will the Kenny Rogers Roasters-level lights in Sanford be too bright for Vol backup Gaston Moore?

This game is a must win combined with a can’t lose wrapped in a put up or shut up for all involved, and I’m nervous and excited to watch it unfold in a blacked-out Sanford Stadium.

Dr. Chim Richalds’ pick: Kirby Smart’s “on to the next” mentality has the ‘Dawgs ready to battle this weekend. But don’t take my word for it…here’s what Badger Bill had to say: “‘Dawgs are fine. Banged-up Nico ain’t winnin’ between the hedges.” So fade this! ::crotch grab:: Georgia 28-17.

It’s…::birds scatter, glass shatters:: TTM’s Sneaky Banger of the Week!

#13 Boise State at San Jose State

7:00pm ET, CBS Sports, Boise State -13.5

By Badger Bill

It’s rare enough these days for the game’s biggest stars to spend their entire career at one school. To do so outside of a Power Four conference…that borders on the unbelievable.

For Boise State’s record-chasing rushing extraordinaire Ashton Jeanty, bright lights and a quick payday mean little. He is the man who stayed. His place on the blue turf pantheon is set in stone, but his story is not yet complete. The heights to which he can carry the Broncos are yet to be determined. The kid might just stamp himself a college football legend.

With 1,734 yards and 23 touchdowns in 9 games, Jeanty finds himself flirting with Barry Sanders (holy shit…) records that were set during Sanders’ iconic 1988 Heisman campaign. Although Jeanty is still unlikely to match Sanders’ per-game averages, the 8-1 Broncos have a real opportunity to push Jeanty over the top. A 3-point loss at #1 Oregon remains the lone blemish on their schedule. As the playoffs go, it’s win and they’re in. Shit, Boise State might just find themselves hosting a first round match-up. Sign me all the fuckin’ way up to watch Alabama on the blue turf in December. Even wilder: depending on how things shake out, the Broncos could even end up with a first-round bye if the Big 12 and ACC continue to cannibalize themselves. Wherever this magical season goes, it’s gonna be a gas to follow.

No disrespect to San Jose State, a legitimately good football team with an awesome coach (shoutout to Ken Niumatalolo, who won 109 games in 15 seasons in charge at Navy). But some are the teams that matter, and some are the footnotes. Ashton Jeanty hasn't been slowed down yet, and it ain’t happenin’ in San Jose. He might as well start his cross country trek to New York City, because he’s got a date there four weeks from Saturday. Could there be a big piece of hardware waiting for him?

Badger Bill’s Pick: SJSU is giving up over 150 rushing yards per game. Time to feast, Jeanty. Broncos 31-17.

Boxslayer’s Weekly Cash ($$$) Giveaway

As Ace Ventura once said, “If I’m not back in five minutes, just wait longer.”

Boxslayer’s locks have been as leaky as Edward Snowden, but stick to the program! Boxslayer shines when his back is against the wall, and this week’s Lock of the Week is on point:

Boxslayer’s 5-Unit Lock of the Week – Kansas State -8

Yes, I know, the Wildcats lost their last game and are now more than a touchdown favorite. Yes, Cam Skettebo is projected to be back for a team that lives by the run game. However, Kansas State has a better run game and sports one of the best rushing defenses in the country. The Wildcats will have Manhattan buzzing in what may be the Big 12 game of the year. Kansas State wins by 10.

Boxslayer’s Trademark 5-game, 1-unit parlay:

Georgia -10 – ‘Dawgs are down but not out. Kirby knows this is a must-win and likely has Bobo on a short leash. Expect the OC to finally open up the playbook, and for the ‘Dawgs offense to play a better game under the lights at home.

Texas -12 – Longhorns seem to be hitting their stride. Boxslayer loves Texas on the road here.

Colorado -11.5 – Has to be said that the Buffs are playing good football right now. Colorado wins by two touchdowns at home over a banged-up Utah team still reeling from their last-second loss to BYU.

LSU -4 – LSU’s lost two in a reaux, but the Swamp ain’t a hard place to play anymore and Brian Kelly’s Tigers need this one badly. Don’t be surprised to see LSU hit a few trick plays.