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Week 14: Rivalries That Matter
Talk about a heavyweight showdown...

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For you busy executives out there…

  • What carnage...‘Bama, Ole Miss, Deion, Cignetti, and A&M all went down as the playoff picture got even muddier last week.

  • Badger Bill leads our rundown of this weekend’s post-Thanksgiving feast of rivalry games.

  • Got something to say? Holler at your boys by responding directly to this email, and we'll do our best to address it next week!

Badger Droppings

By Badger Bill

Michigan at #2 Ohio State

Noon ET, FOX, Ohio State -18.5

The Game. The one Ohio State fans have been salivating—obsessing?—over since Jim Harbaugh ripped out his Midwestern roots to try and make it big in Hollywood. Beating that Team up North had become routine for the Buckeyes in the 21st century until the Wolverines ripped off three straight on their way to last year’s national title. Michigan has certainly come crashing back to earth, but has played better football over the last few weeks. I just can’t help but wonder… with all of the pressure and everything on the line, does this group of Buckeyes truly believe they can beat up the bully that’s pushed them around for three straight years? Frankly, it’s hard to imagine they don’t get it done…but 3 touchdowns? Sheesh. Buckeyes 34-21.

#5 Notre Dame at USC

3:30 ET, CBS, Notre Dame -6.5

The Irish may be the hottest team in the country: for better or worse, they haven’t played a competitive game in two months. On the surface, there isn't much to be concerned about here for Notre Dame. A change at quarterback upgraded the Trojan offense from vanilla to vanilla bean. And despite consecutive wins, USC bears a closer resemblance to Caleb Williams’ group in Chicago than the days of Heisman glory past. But as this year of expanded conferences has proven, travel is the great equalizer...Can Notre Dame refuel after last week’s 7pm kickoff in Yankee Stadium to get up for a midday tilt in the LA Coliseum? Luck of the Irish should win the day, but I have a funny feeling that this one mighttt just be magically delicious. Irish 23-20.

#16 Arizona State at Arizona

3:30 ET, FOX, Arizona State -8.5

Maybe the best part of college football are the straight piss and vinegar fueled rivalries where the stakes are typically low, but the class always lower. For that, you can count the Territorial Cup among the nation’s finest. To the uninitiated, consider it the Egg Bowl for cowboys and indians. But this year’s variety comes with a fun twist, as the upstart Sun Devils play for a spot in the Big 12 title game—and a shot at the CFP. That is unless they win alongside Colorado, Iowa State, Baylor, Cincinnati, Houston, and Texas…which would drop them below the Buffs and Cyclones on numerous tiebreakers…though that tasty little 7-pack hits around +10000 (!!!) with the bookmakers. “Throw out the records” is a bit overplayed when it comes to rivalry games, but this is one where weird shit just finds a way to happen. Not quite sure what went wrong for Noah Fifita, Tetairoa McMillan, and the Wildcats this season, but something tells me that dragging the Devils to hell might just make it all okay. Wildcats 17-14.

Minnesota @ Wisconsin (Friday)

Noon ET, CBS, Minnesota -1.5

Okay, maybe this one’s just for me, but my beloved Badgers put their 22-year bowl streak on the line against those filthy, row-boating rodents from the far side of the Mississippi. Game 134 in college football’s most-played rivalry—for college football’s best trophy, which is clearly Paul Bunyan’s Axe—has the good guys holding the slimmest of margins, 63-62-8. You want to tell me that P.J. fucking Fleck is going to deny me a little late-December nirvana for the first time since I first sang On, Wisconsin!? Get the fuck outta here. B1G Lock it baby. BADGERS 31-20.

Burt's Best Guess

By BurtReynolds69

#15 South Carolina at #12 Clemson

Noon ET, ESPN, Clemson -2.5

I hope you all followed Burt’s lead last week, because the Bandit fucking NAILED that Colorado/Kansas game…We’ll look to keep it going this week as a red-hot South Carolina team heads upstate to battle arch-rival and sneaky playoff contender Clemson.

Is what Lil’ Beamer’s ‘Cocks are doing impressive? Absolutely. Was it a bit maddening to sit there as a diehard FSU fan and listen to South Carolina fans at a Friendsgiving last weekend assure each other that their THREE-LOSS TEAM absolutely deserves a playoff spot?? Yes. It was. But the fact of the matter is that this thing’s a 12-team exercise now, and the SEC and Big Ten are driving the bus. If the ‘Cocks go into Death Valley—they’re no doubt happy this is a nooner as opposed to a night game, where Lil’ Ole’ Clemson can become a death trap—and triumphs over Yaba-Dabo-Doo’s Tigers, they will have won six straight, including blowouts over Texas A&M and Oklahoma, a win over a ranked (but complete pretender, let's be honest here) Missouri team, and then a road win over the Country Gentlemen. They would be right in the thick of it for one of those final playoff spots.

Are you aware that Clemson’s pretty good this year? I bet you’re not. The Tigers have been flying under the national radar (getting rocked by Georgia in Week 1 didn't help), but their defense is characteristically stout, and quarterback Cade Klubnik, who I gather isn’t necessarily a favorite of Clemson faithful, is quietly putting together a really solid season. In fact, per a great stat from David Hale, Klubnik is one of only SIX quarterbacks in the playoff era with at least a 63% completion percentage, 3,100 total yards, 34 touchdowns, and 5 or fewer turnovers at this point in a season. The other five? Baker Mayfield, Jayden Daniels, Marcus Mariota, Caleb Williams, and Bo Nix…So yeah, Klubnik’s been playing well, even if he remains somewhat unproven in the eyes of Tiger fans. Might he finally earn their trust with a pivotal rivalry win over the surging ‘Cocks? We'll find out in a charged atmosphere on Saturday afternoon.

Burt’s pick: South Carolina’s impressive run comes to an end in Death Valley as Klampson’s brawny D is able to harry freshman QB LaNorris Sellers juuust a bit more than Carolina’s talented front is able to bother the more experienced Klubnik. Clemson 27-24.

The Doctor's Diagnosis

By Dr. Chim Richalds

Georgia Tech at #7 Georgia

7:30pm FRIDAY, ABC, Georgia -17.5

Traditions abound this time of year: waking up a bit fuzzy after one too many bourbon drinks on Wendsdee night. Obliterating your gas bill in an all-day cooking affair. Al Roker describing the armada of giant balloons floating through NYC, his sultry voice dancing alongside the wafts of gravy and stuffing emanating from the kitchen. Your attention being split between a crazy uncle’s rant about the most recent election and the perfect parlay you’re trying to get in before a sumptuous buffet of holiday NFL games begins. Trying to keep your food down when you realize one of those games is Giants/Cowboys. If you’re in the state of Georgia, ‘Dawgs vs Dorks is a Thanksgiving Week tradition right up there with the best of ‘em.

As that spread of Thanksgiving goodness begins to thin in the late afternoon, so too has the spread between the Yellow Jackets and Bulldogs: the line opened at UGA -20.5, but has been shifting in the Jackets’ favor, now sitting at -19. I wouldn’t be shocked if that number shrinks again before kickoff (EDITOR’S NOTE: the line has now moved to UGA -17.5), and to be honest, it still feels like a lot of points, especially for a Georgia team that has a habit of playing down to its competition.

Tech has won their last two, including a takedown of Miami—the Hurricanes’ only loss this year—a few weeks ago. That win likely has the Ramblin’ Wreck feeling more confident than ever that they can pull off the upset and leave the ‘Dawgs watching playoff football from their dorm rooms. Georgia can’t afford to overlook this game, even as their fans’ attention may be more focused on the upcoming SEC Championship game against one of those classic SEC rivals from the Lone Star State.

Injuries continue to be an issue for Georgia, especially at running back. Look for Nate Frazier to see the lion’s share of carries again, with Etienne and both Robinsons still not yet ready for primetime. The Georgia defense needs to come out and play like they have been for most of the last 4 seasons – suffocate any attempt of the Tech run game and try to limit explosive plays over the top.

Chim’s Pick: Georgia Tech looks at Georgia as a rival. Georgia looks at Tech as a pesky little gnat trying to ruin an otherwise lovely picnic. The ‘Dawgs squash the Urkels, 35-14.

A note from the editor: Some have been fading him. Others have been going down with the boat of Box. Here’s what I’ll tell you: I’ve seen this man turn a meager, miserly stack into One-Eyed Jack’s treasure trove at the craps table. How does he do it? He stays his ass in the game. He remains aggressive. He has balls. And at TTM, we…like…BALLS. Now the question is…do you??

::Boos rain down from the cheap seats…a battered warrior—I’m thinking Mickey Rourke from the Wrestler—girds his loins for one more trip into the ring::

Without further Adu folks, it’s your one and only…the kiss-stealing…Rolex watch-wearing…Box…SLAYER!!! ::more boos::

Boxslayer’s Weekly Boondoggle

Boxslayer is having a down year, that’s quite easy to see…But it happens to all the greats, baby.

Brady had a losing record in 2022, but he’s still the GOAT. I mean have you seen the guy’s face recently?? He can’t stop smiling! We’ll right the ship this week and end the regular season on a high note. As a bonus to the TTM family, Boxslayer has two tasty locks this week.

Texas – 5.5 – This game opened as a 4-point spread and has been steadily increasing with huge public money coming in on the Longhorns. I like Texas to shed the “they haven’t beaten anybody tough yet” argument with a statement win against a battle-hardened—but potentially defeated—Aggie squad. This is a legit rivalry being played for the first time since 2011, so Big Box expects a close, hard-fought game. But a late score pushes the Longhorns over the 5.5.

Florida State / Florida – UNDER 45.5 – Doak Campbell is clearly not what it used to be (BurtReynolds69 takes issue with this statement), but there is a deep, deep hatred amongst these two rebuilding teams. Expect a defensive (or shitty offensive) game with many, many punts. Don’t see this one turning into a shoot-out, and as much as Boxslayer hates unders, take the under in a very non-sexy football game.

Boxslayer’s Trademark 5-game, 1-unit parlay:

Ohio State / Michigan – OVER 42.5 – Ohio State might score 43 points on their own in what is likely going to be a blowout. Michigan stinks, but they should be able to scrounge together a couple scores to pump the total over 42.5.

Tennessee -11 – As much as the Boxslayer would love to see Vandy knock off the Vols, they won’t. Tennessee has too much riding on this game to let Vandy keep it close and should win by 2+ touchdowns.

Clemson -3 – Lot of hype behind the Cocks right now, but their gravy train runs out this week in Death Valley. Tigers by a touchdown.

Notre Dame -7.5 – The Irish are playing some damn good defense right now. It’s a long road trip to LA, but the Irish take care of business and ride into the playoffs with a lot of momentum.

Oregon / Washington -over 50.5 – Expect a high-scoring affair in this year’s Border War. Oregon’s going to score the majority of them, but Washington will put up a few scores to keep Oregon’s starters on the field for most of the game.