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For the lazy folks

• Editor’s note: Burt’s out this week to transport a pregnant elephant from Miami to Dallas. He’ll be back for bowl season.
• Conference Championship weekend is upon us. Savor these weekends, for there aren't many left!
• Dr. Richalds goes off on a tangent and gets pre-mad about the CFP craziness, while Badger Bill and the Boxslayer give us their thoughts on this weekend's slate.

The SEC Championship…and Learning to Accept the Inevitable

By Chim Richalds, Ph.D.

#5 Georgia vs #2 Texas

4:00pm ET, ABC, Texas -2.5

I’ll make this first part quick: last Friday delivered one of the worst football-watching experiences I’ve ever endured. A much-improved Georgia Tech team rambled into Athens with a score to settle, and the ‘Dawgs narrowly avoided embarrassment. It felt like one of those videos where the bullied kid decides to fight back and absolutely crumples their tormenter. Credit to the Yellow Jackets and Haynes King. “We almost had you!” they’ll squeak. “You never had us. You never had your car.”

Now let’s get into Georgia-Texas 2: Electric Boogaloo.

Since getting manhandled at home by the ‘Dawgs in October, Texas has largely handled its business, capping the regular season off with a low-scoring but convincing win at a hostile Kyle Field last Saturday night. The Longhorn defense has been playing at a high level, anchored by stud linebacker Anthony Hill Jr, but what folks may be most curious about is who’ll be starting under center for the Fightin’ McConaugheys on Saturday. I don’t know the latest on Quinn Ewers’ injury situation (which seems to change daily), but if Georgia’s defense can play at the level it did in Austin, Kirby Smart and the ‘Dawg faithful will likely feel good about their chances regardless of who’s taking snaps for Texas.

I’m not gonna beat the deadest of horses and say “well, it depends on which Georgia offense shows up on Saturday.” I’m not going to say that. But it’s true! On that note, I’ve evolved a bit from the hateful take I issued on Beck a few weeks back, and now actually feel a bit bad for the guy. He’s been playing pretty well the last few weeks, only to be let down by a group of receivers with cinder blocks for hands.

The cloud of uncertainty hanging over my red and black-painted chest this weekend is this: what does the playoff committee do to the losers of the power-conference championship games? From a Georgia perspective, the wounds from another loss to ‘Bama in last year’s SECCG, which saw the ‘Dawgs drop from #1 to #6 and out of the CFP, are still fresh in our minds. With an expanded playoff, surely a loss in the SEC Championship Game can’t serve as a detriment to your playoff hopes, can it? It shouldn’t, IMHO, but it might. I think Georgia is safely in the postseason regardless of the outcome this weekend.

SMU appears to be a different story, and it’s emblematic of the growing gap in influence between the de facto Power Two—the SEC and Big Ten—and their supposed “Power Four” partners in the ACC and Big 12. The committee released its penultimate rankings for the 12-team playoff Tuesday night and, wouldn’t you know it, they’ve left it wide open to get their gapped-tooth darling—the Alabama Crimson Tide—a spot at the table. If SMU loses the ACC championship to Clemson, it’s likely the Tide—yes, the team that lost to Vanderbilt and got blown out 24-3 by a 6-6 Oklahoma team two weeks ago—will weasel its way into the field. Of course Bama’s in. If you’re pissed off about this, you haven’t been paying attention. I’ve accepted it, and you should too. It’s not going to change.

What I think should change, however, is the requirement that the four highest-ranked conference champions automatically nab the top-four seeds and first-round byes. This is inevitably going to lead to schools hoping for “worse” seeding luck in exchange for an easier route through the playoffs. For example, the way things currently stand, the 11 seed opens with Notre Dame and then plays the ACC champion, or perhaps even Boise State should SMU lose and the Broncos move up a spot. Meanwhile, a Georgia loss has them potentially playing Texas for the third time this year (if the Dawgs can escape a December game in Bloomington). The road looks even tougher for Tennessee—who also beat Alabama—as they could potentially draw a game in Columbus followed by a matchup with #1 Oregon just to get to the semifinals. With the way the CFP is currently set up, would you really be surprised if teams start to opt out of their conference’s championship game for fear that a loss would hurt their chances of post-season ball? I wouldn’t be.

But I’m getting ahead of myself. It’s fun to debate how things should or shouldn’t work, but the reality is we have a slate of championship games to get through before we can actually be mad. Let’s not get pre-mad here, folks. Let’s just watch some good football, because the season is winding down quickly, and soon enough it’s going to be February and we’ll be longing for warmer weather just to be a bit closer to football weather once more. Shit…this was supposed to be a preview about Kirby’s boys and the villains from Austin. The suits are gonna be pissed…

Dr. Richalds’ Pick: The X factor in this game is our visor-clad savior from Bainbridge, Georgia (shoutout to my boy and fellow Bainbridge native Abraham “Conger” Varner!). Kirby is going to have his boys ready to play. Uga exacts his revenge on Beavis the Cow. Dawgs win, 28-17.

Badger B1ll's B1G Championship Preview

By Badger Bill

#3 Penn State vs #1 Oregon

8:00pm ET, CBS, Oregon -3.5

Well, well, well. How the turntables…

After Michigan upended the college football world and took down Ohio State for the fourth year in a row (the Buckeyes did not, in fact, truly believe they could beat up their bully), the Penn State Nittany Lions are headed to Indianapolis.

This season’s James Franklin experience looked like the usual Groundhog Day: beat the teams they should, and shit the bed when it matters most. After blowing a 10-point first quarter lead at home versus the Buckeyes on November 2, the Nittany Lions, who were unable to muster an offensive touchdown, were left for dead. But fortune favors the bold—and the cold. Tales from the crypt echo the same refrain (“We Are…”), and just like that, Franklin’s best Penn State team has everything left in front of them: A Big Ten title. The #1 seed in the CFP. And perhaps, for the first time since ‘86, a national championship.

Their first hurdle? Only the last remaining undefeated in the FBS. Quack quack, baby. Dan Lanning’s Oregon Ducks have led the playoff rankings from wire to wire. With a pair of top 10 wins on the resume and a Heisman finalist at quarterback, the Ducks have earned their spot as college football’s team to beat. So what chance in hell does Big Game James Franklin have in turning the sport on its head again? Oregon showed signs of vulnerability a few weeks ago, barely squeaking by a miserable Wisconsin team 16-13 in Madison. That game happened to come just two weeks after making a trip to Ann Arbor, and Purdue before that. So it begs the question: are the travel weary Ducks up for a fourth trip back east in eight weeks? Such is life in the new Big Ten, but that grind will take its toll on the most seasoned of road warriors. We think that mighttt just be the edge that Penn State, in what is sure to be a heavily blue and white crowd, needs in order to do what no one has yet…and that’s duck hunt.

Badger Bill’s Pick: I’m chuggin’ my own Big Ten traditionalist Kool-Aid, folks. Oregon’s flawless run ends on Midwest football’s biggest stage. Nittany Lions 20-17.

Boxslayer’s Championship Week Feast

Boxslayer’s riding some momentum going into Championship weekend after delivering on not one, but TWO, Locks of the Week last week. Let’s double down on our winnings last week with Big Box’s Championship Week ::sounds of doors being deadbolted:: Lock of the Week!

SMU -2.5 – Speaking of momentum, SMU is one of the hottest teams on the planet right now, and the ‘Stangs are squaring off against a Clemson team that just lost a hard-fought, emotional game against its mortal rival. Since a close loss to BYU in Week 3, the Mustangs have put up video game numbers on offense, and though Clemson’s defense has shown flashes of the old school Tiger defenses that led Dabo and Co. to multiple national championships, Box likes the momentum behind high-flying SMU. Back the Mustangs here.

Boxslayer’s Trademark 5-game, 1-unit parlay:

• Tulane -5 – This is Tulane’s year. Both the spread and the moneyline have shifted toward the Green Wave. Trust the public money on this one and ride the Wave.
• Boise State -4.5 – Line seems about right here. Boise State won in Vegas by 5 a few weeks ago, and continues to look like the better team. Expect Ashton Jeanty to cap off a historic season and push his Broncos into the playoffs.
• Arizona State -1.5 – Cyclones haven’t won a conference championship in 112 years (!!). Unfortunately, that streak will stretch to 113…Arizona State is healthy and playing great football right now. Again, we’re backing the squad with the most momentum here.
• Oregon -3.5 – This spread should be larger. Penn State doesn’t show up in big games, and it seems foolhardy to bet against Dan Lanning’s Ducks right now. Oregon by 10.
• Georgia ML +130 – Georgia has been one of the hardest teams to cheer for bet on this season. Slow starts have put the ‘Dawgs in tough situations throughout the season—with the exception of the Texas game, where Georgia dominated the Longhorns in Austin. This marks Kirby’s seventh trip to Atlanta in eight seasons, and his squad will be the more disciplined team in a favorable environment in the Dome. ‘Dawgs win by 3 in a physical nailbiter.