If you only read this…

• Last week we broke down the playoff field and Burt—a spineless turncoat to the SEC’s quest for total domination—explained why he feels the committee got it right. If you missed it, check that ish out.
• This week we’re trying something a little different: all of our “experts” are throwing a dart at every playoff game. Time to find out who knows their stuff…
• Do you like money?? Then join our TTM bracket pool! Click here to join (password is “Noles”), one entry per person, $20 entry fee (Venmo @Sam-Ranson).The more folks we get in, the bigger the pot, so feel free to share that shit out!

It’s playoff time, folks!

And we’re trying something a little different to usher in this first round of playoff games…Each of our writers is going to take a crack at all four games. Who do you trust? Who’s a big dumb idiot?? Read more to find out!

#10 Indiana at #7 Notre Dame

Friday, 8pm ET, ABC and ESPN, Notre Dame -6.5

Dr. Chim Richalds: We’ve got Jimmy Chitwood vs. Rudy Ruettiger kicking off the first ever 12-team College Football Playoff tonight in an unofficial state championship game. Indiana burst onto the national scene this year under first-year head coach Curt Cignetti, but, like a couple other teams in this ‘yoff, lost their only real test of the season when they got their doors blown off by Ohio State. As a perennial member of the “Notre Dame are frauds!” camp, watching them lose to NIU three months ago made me not only jolly, but also ho-ho-hopeful that the loss would knock them out of playoff contention. Those Fightin’ Irish looked like they could get dropped by a looping Jake Paul hook. But the team we’ve seen since that fiasco looks like they could go 12 rounds with prime Tyson. Still, I think there’s a chance the Hoosiers roll into South Bend and leave a steaming pile of coal in Marcus Freeman’s stocking. The sun don’t shine on the same dog’s ass every day, but the lights in Notre Dame Stadium will shine on Indiana’s on Fridee night…28-24 Hoosiers.

Badger Bill: Though the selection committee had a big whiff (more on that later), hot damn did they get this one right. The Indiana Hoosiers—of college basketball lore—are traveling upstate to take on college football’s most iconic brand—the Notre Dame Fighting Irish—in the College Football Playoff. How fuckin’ cool is that?? THIS is why we switched to the 12-teamer. Now you may have assumed this in-state rivalry was littered with a long history of Notre Dame beatdowns, but that’s not really the case. Okay sure, it’s been pretty one-sided, but they’ve only met once since a young up-and-comer named John F. Kennedy became the first Irish-Catholic president of these United States! Indiana has avoided South Bend like the plague…but that just makes Curt Cignetti and his DGAF swagger the perfect conciliator. He’ll have his boys ready to play, so don’t be surprised if Indiana throws the first haymaker in front of a wide-eyed crowd. But this one’s going the distance: Too much defense. Too much run game. Too much been there, done that. Congrats Irish, it’s only the Georgia Bulldogs waiting for you in New Orleans. ND in a grinder. 24-17 Irish.

BurtReynolds69: I don’t think Indiana has the size or the horses to hang here. Now, ole Cigs will have his boys frothing at the mouth, and you can bet he’ll have some tricks up his sleeve that may keep the Hoosiers in it for a half, but I like Notre Dame to grind the upstarts from Bloomingdale’s (Bloomington?) into a nice, chunky holiday stew in the second half. I questioned the potency of the Irish offense earlier this season—is Riley Leonard really that guy pal??—but the numbers are the numbers: in recent weeks, Notre Dame has scored 49 on USC, 52 on a then-undefeated Navy, 49 on a then-undefeated and very physical Army, 52 against (an admittedly putrid) FSU, and 31 to blow out a stingy Georgia Tech team. Now, none of those squads are world-beaters, but Marcus Freeman’s guys have been dominant on both sides of the ball since *terrible Irish accent* thee ole’ Narthern Illinois debackle a’ 2024!! I like Notre Dame to flex on ‘em, 34-17.

#11 SMU at #6 Penn State

Saturday, Noon ET, TNT and MAX (LOL), Penn State -8.5

Dr. Chim Richalds: It doesn’t get much better for a Nittany Lion than a night game in State College in…December?? The Mustangs better pay for that extra suitcase for their horse blankets, because it’s gonna be nipply. Penn State’s defense will have their hands full attempting to shut down Kevin Jennings and SMU’s high-horse powered offense. PSU has been solid on that side of the ball, but the Nittany Lions play a ton of man coverage, which should favor Jennings’ dual-threat game (defensive backs can’t rally to the quarterback when their backs are turned in coverage…). The key for Penn State will be to successfully involve hulking tight end Tyler Warren. SMU gives up yardage in droves to opposing tight ends, and Warren is the best in the business—and a vital security blanket for quarterback Drew Allar. Penn State has more weapons and will have the backing of 100,000+ who’ve waited a looong time for a moment like this. Also, if Franklin doesn’t make the semis with this draw, it may be time to move on…Penn State wins and covers, 30-21.

Badger Bill: Alright, time for me to harp on the playoff committee. The seedings are arbitrary and dumb. You put on a ridiculous, completely meaningless rankings show for six weeks for TV eyeballs and ad revenue, but then you don’t even put any strategic thought into the final seedings! Flipping #12 Clemson with #11 SMU—who just played, by the way, and Clemson won—could have given us a blue-blood matchup between Penn State and Clemson (fun!) and a Texas two-steppin’ shootout between the ‘Horns and Ponies in Austin (really fun!). Alas, we kick off the Saturday triple-header with a brunch matchup nobody really wants to watch…But I digress. (Editor’s note: Damn, good point there Bill…) SMU is up shit’s creek. My colleague Burt charmingly refers to a chilly night in the Carolinas as “cold.” However, I can assure you, these ponyboys ain’t ready for that first deep breath of central PA air as the sun rises—it’s 11 degrees and everything hurts for no reason. “You merely adopted the dark…the cold…I was born in it. Molded by it.” -Bane. 34-14 Nittany Lions.

BurtReynolds69: I was impressed with Penn State’s fight against Oregon. James Franklin’s got a physical (they ran it for nearly 300 yards), well-coached (they fought until the bitter end) football team. I was also impressed by SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings’ resilience in the ACC championship, where he started poorly, the Mustangs got down multiple scores, but then stormed back to nearly steal one from Dabo and Co. My concern if I’m SMU: It’s tracking to be in the low 20s at kick—and may even snow—and the Nittany Beavers are gonna have about 100,000 hungry, long-deprived lunatics behind them. Tough environment. Here’s what I’m watching, and it’s a tale as old as time: How many rushing yards does Penn State have at the end of the first quarter? If it’s 15, and SMU has successfully stacked the box and forced Penn State to open up its playbook, then I like the Ponies to be a factor into the second half. If it’s over 100? Then I think the Nittany Beavers are playing to their game script, and they’ll probably wear SMU out in the latter stages. One potentially impactful note: the ACC championship was played in roughly 35-degree weather, and SMU threw it around the yard pretty well there, so perhaps the cold won’t kill ‘em in the crib. Tough one to call, but I’m backing Penn State in a nailbiter at home, 31-27.

#12 Clemson at #5 Texas

Saturday, 4pm ET, TNT and MAX (LOL!), Texas -12.5

Dr. Chim Richalds: On Saturday, we’re going to find out if Sarkisian has the balls to do what I, a guy with a newsletter writing under a pseudonym, thinks he should do and finally name Arch Manning Texas’ starting signal caller. Quinn Ewers has not looked like a guy ready to win the big game, and Texas have had two full weeks to build a game plan around Arch. In the limited action he’s seen, Manning seems to provide that spark that most programs would kill for. He certainly has the pedigree.

Dabo’s Tigers, sporting three losses and an ACC championship, are staring down the barrel of probably their second hardest matchup of the year on paper, and Texas Memorial Stadium is going to be loud. They’ll need to lean on veteran players and a stout defense to make sure this game doesn’t get out of hand early, or Dabo and Co.’s long, strange trip ends in Austin. Texas is deeper and more talented…Longhorns 28-17.

Badger Bill: Hey now, we’ve made it to the afternoon snack. What should have been a tasty Texas BBQ sampler turned into leftover slop so orange that only Carrot Top, Peter Rabbit and Kel are invited… Who loves orangeeee soda? Nobody. No one does… Let’s make a couple things clear. These Clemson Tigers stink, and the Longhorns are going to win this football game. But I’m fascinated to see what we get out of this Texas team. It’s been a really solid, yet certainly unremarkable season, mostly due to a soft schedule lacking signature wins. But even in defeat to a backup quarterback in Atlanta, they hung with the ‘Dawgs in a way that proved the ‘Horns can bang with the best of ‘em. If they bring it against Clemson, and I expect they will, a second round date with Arizona State in Atlanta looms as the cleanest path for any team to the semifinals. No pressure, Quinn Ewers. The rumor mill has him closer to the transfer portal than the NFL Draft…Can he lead the Longhorns deep into January and hold off Arch Manning along the way? TBD, but it don’t matter Saturday. Texas is loaded with All-Americans and award winners. The Tigers are not. Hook ‘em, 28-10.

BurtReynolds69: What’s up with Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers? That’s my question. Because if he’s not right—and he hasn’t looked it in recent games—then I think that by starting him, Texas might be setting themselves up for disaster here. Though Dabo hasn’t exactly been putting them in the most advantageous situations in recent years, I’d argue that the Tigers have the advantage of knowing exactly who they are: they’re a solid team that leans on a rugged defense and a balanced—if unspectacular—offense led by a steady signal caller in Cade Klubnik. The Tigers are nothing special, but they’ll be buttoned-up. If Ewers is skipping (tripping?) balls in the dirt, how long does it take for Sarkisian to pull the chute and bring in Young Arch? I think I’m going to bank on my belief that Texas is just a better, deeper team here, playing at home. Clemson leads throughout the first half, but Texas gets it shit together—potentially behind Arch—and pulls away late, 30-20.

#9 Tennessee at #8 Ohio State

Saturday, 8pm ET, ABC and ESPN, Ohio State -7.5

Dr. Chim Richalds: This is, in my opinion, the most intriguing matchup of the first round of playoff games. On one end, you’ve got the Volunteers and their glory-starved fanbase finally seeing the light at the end of that tunnel of mediocrity. Talent-wise, I think Nico Iamaleava is a stud. He’s yo-yo’d on the field this year, showing signs of brilliance only to be reined back in by the coaching staff after some less than stellar moments. His future is bright, but does his future begin this Saturday in Columbus? On the other sideline, you’ve got a walking, breathing Just For Men billboard that’s one loss away from becoming persona non grata in Ohio. Hell, Ryan Day may need to win the whole thing to keep from having to empty out his desk. After a hilarious (and baffling) loss to Michigan two weeks ago, I expect the Buckeyes to come out with a fire under their asses. I can really see this game going either way, but I’ll give the edge to the home team and the frigid Midwestern air. Buckeyes win a close one, 24-21.

Badger Bill: FINALLY, the prime rib dinner! In my nearly two decades of Big Ten fandom, there has been the same common challenge to SEC superiority… what if they had to leave the comforts of home, and come up north when the temperature cranks down? Well folks, the time has come. So what if Knoxville is closer to Columbus than most of the other SEC schools? This is the land of 3 yards & a cloud of dust! But if you squint your eyes and blur the lines, you might find it hard to tell which team plays in which conference. The Vols have rapidly evolved their identity under Jost Heupel from a top-10 passing attack in 2022 to a top-10 rushing attack in 2024. Combined with a stout defense, especially along the line, they certainly resemble another team up north. One that knows a thing or two about beating Ohio State. Dare I say, they kinda look like Michigan? Well the Buckeyes have entered the chat… This season certainly hasn’t gone as expected in Columbus, especially with that roster. But the fact remains, it’s national title or bust. They are stacked with dudes at all levels, aside for injuries along the OL and the enigma that is Will Howard. Was the shocking loss to Michigan the jolt they needed, or the precursor to an early exit? I imagine Tennessee gives them a run for their money, but I’ll bet on the playmakers doing just enough for the Buckeyes. Take the under, if you must. 20-14 Ohio State

BurtReynolds69: I have no freaking idea here…On the one hand, Ohio State has largely underwhelmed relative to expectations, and I have serious reservations about quarterback Will Howard’s ability to meet the moment against elite competition. I think he feasts on lesser opponents, but I think he—and this Ohio State team as a whole—are developing a tendency to press in big moments and actually become less than the sum of their parts. On the other hand, while Tennessee’s defense has been downright dominant at times this season, they kinda got shredded by a struggling Georgia offense a few weeks back, and the training wheels have seemingly been put back on the offense after (trigger alert for our older readers!) 8 million-dollar freshman Nico Iamaleava largely struggled in big games versus Florida, Alabama, and Georgia. I think Ohio State’s backs are against the wall here, I think it’s going to be fucking freezing at 8pm in Columbus, and I think we might just get the best version of the Buckeyes here. Tennessee’s pass rush makes enough plays to keep this one interesting, but Ohio State rides their crowd—and a couple more offensive playmakers than Tennessee’s bringing to the party—to a tight, ugly win, 24-17.

Big Box’s Weekly Lockbox

Boxslayer’s laying down a BIG-money parlay this week. Box Country, let’s ride!!

Notre Dame (-6.5) vs. Indiana – Spread is heading towards Indiana since it opened at -8.5, but it’s Christmas time, and Touchdown Jesus won’t be beaten at home…

SMU (+8.5) vs. Penn State – Boxslayer is high on the ‘Stangs and I think they come away with a SU win. 8.5 points is a lot in a high-pressure game, which hasn’t been Penn State’s strength in the last, ohhhh 30 years.

Texas (-12.5) vs. Clemson – Lotta points here, but Clemson sucks. Texas is going to be eating tater tots all day long. Back the ‘Horns here, even with a 12.5-point spread.

Tennessee (+7.5) vs. Ohio State – That Tennessee d-line’s going to be all up in Will Howard’s grill, ALL NIGHT LONG. Box likes the Vols straight up (just puked a little in my mouth…).