In a word…

• We react to a relatively drama-free (how you wish your wife’s girls’ nights could be…) opening round of the inaugural 12-team ‘yoff.

• Burt and the boys preview what we think is going to be a much more competitive quarterfinal round, while the Boxslayer, still drunk off Christmas 'nog, gives his lock and parlay of the week.

• If you’re in the highly exclusive TTM bracket pool—see the current standings here—but haven’t paid your dues, well it might be time to put that check in the mail, Jack…(actually just venmo $20 to @sam-ranson).

Burt’s RFTs from a Very Un-TNT Round One of the CFP

Blowouts abound as Texas’ 14-point win over Clemson the closest of the bunch.

And we all thought TNT knew drama…Couple things here: I’m not thrilled most of these games were blowouts, so I understand the general consternation. But college football is a game of blowouts (shoutout to my guys at noted hipster football outfit Split Zone Duo for coining that). Shit, football is a game of blowouts. The better team generally imposes its will to the extent that it’s not particularly close in the end. Even in a four-team playoff, the semifinals were rarely all that competitive. So spare me the nonsense about “well Ole Miss would’ve done this,” or “Alabama would’ve done that.” You can’t prove anything—just as I couldn't prove the counterpoint—and when those teams had the chance to prove it this season, they didn’t.

In the end, Texas’ 14-point home win over Clemson was the closest of the bunch last week, as Dabo’s Country Gentlemen pulled the game to within 7 early in the fourth quarter before the Longhorns broke a Longrun to ice it. Texas looked good—they stymied Clemson’s rushing attack while piling up nearly 300 yards on the ground themselves to take the pressure off quarterback Quinn Ewers—and Steve Sarkisian’s guys will be heavily favored against upstart Big 12 champion Arizona State. Big picture, I take comfort in this: Four games is an exceedingly small sample size in the grand scheme. There will be years when three of the four opening round games are bangers. Then there will be years like this. As the man Omar once said: “It’s all in the game...”

Ohio State, Penn State romp as Big 10 heavies make a statement.

Did I talk shit about the Big Ten last week? You bet your ass I did. I wasn’t impressed with the Big Ten’s regular season, and I don’t feel I had much reason to be. They didn’t challenge themselves in the out-of-conference, didn’t play well in the OOC games they did play, and several of their traditional heavies (Michigan, USC, Washington, Wisconsin, etc.) were relative non-factors this year. Even Ohio State underperformed relative to preseason expectations. I used this HARD data to question why a two-loss team like Penn State was not only a lock to make the field, but also seemingly a lock to host an opening round game. But two of the League of Leaders and Legends’ four playoff entrants responded by putting their big-boy pants on and downright regulating overmatched opponents in round one, as Ohio State and Penn State boat-raced Tennessee and SMU, respectively (though it should be noted that Crazy Cigs’ Indiana Hoosiers got similarly dog-walked by Notre Dame). A nice opening weekend for the Big Ten, who now comprises 3 of the 8 quarterfinalists, including odds-on favorite Oregon and an extremely dangerous Ohio State team.

Get ready for some better games in the New Year’s slate.

I expect the quarterfinals to be significantly more competitive than round one. Georgia-Notre Dame, Oregon-Ohio State, and even Penn State-Boise State all look like close games to me, and hell, if we see the same version of Arizona State that manhandled Iowa State in the Big 12 championship, Kenny Dillingham’s Sun Devils may just hang with Texas into the second half. Buckle up for a better ride this time around.

Previewing a Steamy New Year's Quarterfinal Slate

#4 Penn State vs. #9 Boise State

Fiesta Bowl (Phoenix), Dec. 31, 7:30pm ET, Penn State -11.5

BurtReynolds69: Full disclosure, I’m gonna be a bit briefer in these first three to make up for the fat chunk of letter I plan to take up for Georgia-Notre Dame. Penn State’s dream draw continues as they draw longtime Group of 5 darling Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. The Nittany Beavers looked buttoned-up in their dismissal of a turnover-happy SMU, and oddsmakers seem to believe that same recipe will be more than enough to carry James Franklin’s crew through to the quarterfinals. The recipe? Run the ball, protect it, play stifling defense, and wear the opponent out with physicality over four quarters. It’s going to be an awesome test of strength-on-strength, as Boise State boasts one of the most dynamic rushing attacks in the country, led by Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty. It seems about a year ago now, but the Broncos probably should’ve beaten #1 Oregon on the road in early September, a game in which Jeanty exploded for 192 yards and 3 touchdowns, and one the Broncos led midway through the fourth quarter. My pick: the Broncos put up a valiant fight, but Penn State’s size and depth is too much in the end. Nittany Beavers 30-24.

Dr. Chim Richalds: Other than two pick-sixes that were served up on silver platters, I did not think Penn State looked overly impressive in their win against the Mustangs just 10 days ago. Another slow start offensively could spell trouble for the Nittany Lions if Ashton Jeanty and co. punch ‘em in the mouth early at this year’s Tostitos – er, VRBO Fiesta Bowl. The Broncos have proven they can hang in big games, losing by just a field goal to Oregon early in the season. Yeah, it was a long time ago, but they actually fared better against the Ducks than Penn State did in the B1G championship game. My heart wants to see Boise take this one, but my gut is telling me the Fightin’ Paternos are able to slow down the Bronco offense juuust enough on NYE. Penn State goes through to the semis, 35-28.

Badger Bill: For the many tweaks needed to improve this new playoff format, the powers that be’s desperate attempts to continue blasting the traditional bowl games in our faces are probably my biggest gripe. For example, seeing the classic Penn State all whites on Boise’s Smurf Turf would've been fucking sweet, but sure, let’s keep pretending the “Fiesta Bowl” still matters because VRBO wants to spend millions to slap its name on it. It hasn’t been a real party since they stopped putting chips & salsa on every seat! God forbid the legions of good ol’ boy bowl directors and other useless execs don’t get to circle-jerk all year long with their shrimp cocktails and watered-down martinis while cosplaying being important. The New Year’s Six were the pillars of college football’s past. They do not make the CFP better. But god damnit…Focus up, Bill…Boise State has had a hell of a season, and Ashton Jeanty deserved every accolade he got. Maybe more, if you ask him. This is Penn State though. Grounding, pounding, and controlling the LOS doesn't sound like a great tact for a team trying to upset the Nittany Lions—that's the Nittany Lions' game. Maybe the better question is, can Penn State's superior talent overcome *magic*? This is still Glendale, where the Broncos are 3-0 since Ian Johnson first Statue of Liberty’d his way into college football lore. Can they make it number four?? Nope. Ain’t nothing but a quarterfinal. Too big, too strong, too deep. Penn State 27-14.

#3 Texas vs. #12 Arizona State

Peach Bowl (Atlanta), Jan. 1, 1pm ET, Texas -12.5

BurtReynolds69: What’s it gonna take to get Matthew McConaughey the hell off my television screen? Can anybody but my ‘Dawgs do anything about that?? As much as I’ve enjoyed watching human meatball Cam Skattebo—watch this boy tote the rock if you haven’t yet, folks…it’s pretty damn fun—and his upstart Arizona State team in recent weeks, I’m not sure they have the horses to give ole’ Wooderson the boot.

My pick: Texas is the better team tip to tail and leads this one start to finish. Longhorns 35-17.

Dr. Chim Richalds: Skattebo is a fun player to watch, and a funner name to say. That’s about all I can say about the Sun Devils. Texas’ first close game of these playoffs will have to wait at least one more round. Maybe Arch will actually get some playing time on New Year’s Day. The only thing this game has going for it is it’s part of the playoffs—and not a Meineke Car Care Bowl littered with opt-outs. Texas 35-10.

Badger Bill: No team in these playoffs got the shaft quite like Arizona State. Hosting a first round game that showcased the beauty—and poolside talent—of Tempe in December would've been worth millions in NIL Monopoly money. But hey, a Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal matchup in their own backyard ain’t a bad consolation prize, right? Nope. Instead the Sun Devils get the Longhorns in Atlanta. May as well have given them the ‘Dawgs. But it’s all gravy for the Sun Devils from here. Skattebo is a joy to watch, and head coach Kenny Dillingham is the envy of every struggling fanbase longing for a young, energetic alum to deliver them from misery (greetings from Wisconsin!). Two touchdowns feels like a lot of disrespect for a red-hot group that hasn’t lost since mid-October. My gut says this one will be prettay, prettaayyy fun. Thank you for listening to my ASU promo. I guess Texas is pretty good too. Horns, but stickier than you might expect, 34-28.

#1 Oregon vs. #6 Ohio State

Rose Bowl (Los Angeles), Jan. 1, 5pm ET, Ohio State -2.5

BurtReynolds69: Incredibly tough one to project (great analysis!). Again, I’ll be fairly brief here and leave the nuance to our B1G expert—the guy’s like 6’4”...he’s a god damn animal—Badger Bill. Ohio State has to be feeling freed up after blowing Tennessee’s doors off—and removing the taste of Michigan’s flag from their mouths—in the opening round. Oregon’s probably feeling slightly disrespected, coming in as an undefeated underdog to a two-loss Buckeye team they beat just a couple months ago. On the one hand, I’ve been telling people all season that this ain’t your daddy’s Oregon team (as in, they have dudes along the line of scrimmage to complement their playmakers). On the other, Ohio State is a supremely talented team that may be peaking at just the right time. I’m actually kind of going with my head over my gut here: Gimme the Buckeyes and their superior defense, 31-21.

Dr. Chim Richalds: Hoooo boy, this one should be fun. Time to dust off the ol’ “rust vs. rest” debate as the Buckeyes and Ducks battle in the Rose Bowl. I believe the consensus here at TTM last week was that OSU were likely going to put together their best game of the season against a tricky Tennessee team, and we knocked it out of park like Donny fuckin’ Donowitz.

Dan Lanning’s bunch haven’t played a game in three weeks, which has given them plenty of time to gameplan for their second meeting with Ohio State. I gotta give the edge to the more consistent team in this one. No amount of quality wins can erase the embarrassment that happened against Michigan. Oregon wins an instant classic, 28-27.

Badger Bill: Since I’ve railed on the bowl games, it’s only fair to shout out the Granddaddy of Them All. Nobody here needs me to tell them the Rose Bowl is a bucket list college football destination, but I can assure you it’s as good as advertised. Even in defeat (I’m 0 for 4, twice vs. Oregon), when the sun sets across the San Gabriel in the 3rd quarter, and the slight buzz turns to a slight drunk…or maybe the edible hits, who knows, live your life…every fiber of you will know that this is as good as it gets.  Just make the pilgrimage. You won’t regret it…But back to this season. When I previewed this matchup in October, I had the Buckeyes by a field goal. The Ducks ultimately pulled it out in Autzen, but Ohio State was driving late with a chance to win, and certainly left that one feeling like they were the better team. Their dismantling of Tennessee in Columbus proved everything this team could be. I can’t explain whatever voodoo hold Michigan has on Ohio State right now, but rivalries can do that to you. The Buckeyes are the better team here, and won’t lose twice. No home field, no lucky ducky...O-H 28-17.

#2 Georgia vs. #5 Notre Dame

Sugar Bowl (New Orleans), Jan. 1, 8:45pm ET, Georgia -1.5

BurtReynolds69: Talk about sex appeal…The ‘Dawgs and the Irish face off in primetime—or a little past it—under the lights of the Superdome in a rematch of the 1981 Sugar Bowl that saw Herschel Walker lead Georgia to its first national title of the modern (read: post-integration) era. I’m going to get this out of the way right off the jump: Notre Dame’s good this year. Their defense, led by a ball-hawking secondary, is among the best in the country by every metric, allowing just 295 yards (4.5 yards per play, top 5 in the nation) and 13.8 points per game on average. On offense, the Irish use a beefy offensive line, stud tailback Jeremiyah love, and the dual-threat ability of quarterback Riley Leonard to rush for over 220 yards per contest, the calling card of a ball-control strategy that allows Marcus Freeman’s guys to control the tempo and choke the life out of opponents. But Georgia—though this is no vintage Kirby Smart defense—may be physically equipped to stifle Notre Dame’s rushing attack and force the Irish into uncomfortable situations (namely, obvious dropback passing situations in which Leonard remains relatively unproven). If the ‘Dawgs are able to get Notre Dame off schedule and into second and third and long, their pass rush, led by stud linebacker Jalon Walker and turbo-charged by creative blitz packages from Smart and DC Glenn Schumann, may be able to create the big plays Georgia needs to grab an early lead and fill their team—which will be led by backup quarterback Gunner Stockton—with confidence. Offensively, the ‘Dawgs will certainly look to establish their own ground game to take some pressure off Stockton, though again, Georgia has not been as dominant in that facet as they have in years past, rushing for just 129 yards per game on the season. Can Trevor Etienne bust a big run early to loosen things up for Stockton? These are the storylines I’ll be watching as I sip a big beer or two on Wednesdee night…My pick: I hate it. I'm going to get ripped for it. But I’m employing the reverse hex here (and we all know who Dr. Chim’s gonna pick…hey ohh!!). The ‘Dawgs play their asses off behind Stockton, but this isn’t a vintage Kirby team, and this is the Leprechauns' best team in…30 years? Notre Dame wins a close, physical battle, 27-21.

Dr. Chim Richalds: Well, I made the mistake of reading my colleague’s pick above before sitting down to write mine, and now I’m sick. Oh, we’re gonna be impartial? We’re gonna give objective, unbiased takes on this here newsletter?? Not me. Not ever. Spoiler alert: I’m taking the ‘Dawgs. And I’ll take them again in the semis. And the finals. Gunner Stockton is getting his first career start, and I’m hoping the Irish underestimate the third-year sophomore’s capabilities. He’s got a strong arm and capable legs, something I’ve personally been missing since the glory days of Stetson Bennett. He’s a hard-nosed runner, and, as evidenced by his play in the SEC Championship Game, can take a hit and hold onto the ball. This is also Stockton’s team now, with the announcement earlier this week that Carson Beck will forgo his final year of eligibility and enter the NFL Draft. Trevor Etienne has finally seen his name removed from the injury report, as Georgia's star tailback looks to be a full-go. I’m calling for the defense to put together its best performance of the year, slow down the Irish rushing attack, and force Riley Leonard into some bad decisions. ‘Dawgs punch their ticket to Miami, 35-21.

Badger Bill: There’s no brilliant insight I can provide for this one that my colleagues haven’t already hit. But lord, I’m a gamblin’ man. Fading the Irish in a major bowl game has been a gimme since Manti Te’o’s girlfriend was a thriving young woman. And yet, this Notre Dame team feels different. Trench play, run game, defense. Since the Northern Illinois debacle, they’ve answered all challenges with authority. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs come trotting into New Orleans on the lead of a backup QB with a whopping zero touchdown passes in games decided by less than 60 points (any such opponent shall go unnamed...*unable to contain it* FSU!!!). Sure, his effort stepping into the SEC Championship was commendable, but is this kid really going to lead Georgia to outgun the 4th ranked scoring team in the nation? Am I really going to bet against this Fighting Irish team getting points?? My mind is telling me no… But my body, MY BODY, is telling me yesss! Go Dawgs. Sic ‘Em 24-17.

Boxslayer’s Weekly Booty Grab

Lock of the Week – Arizona State +12.5 – Keeping it short and sweet here: The Longhorns offense has largely underwhelmed this season and is playing a red hawt Sun Devil team that should keep it relatively close. Texas wins, but ASU keeps it within 2 TDs and covers.

Last chance for the multi-game parlay. Better late than never to hit one.

Arizona State (+12.5) vs. Texas.

Penn State (-11.5) vs Boise St. – Box was dead wrong underestimating this gritty Nittany Lions team. They looked damn good last week and should beat the Broncos handily in the desert.

Oregon (+2.5) vs. Ohio State – Georgia has already proven it ain't impossible to beat the same team twice in one year. Ohio State looked great last week, but Oregon's a far superior team to Tennessee and the quick trip down to the Rose Bowl favors the Ducks. 

Georgia (-1.5) vs. Notre Dame – Gunner Stockton gives the ‘Dawgs the added dimension of a running QB that Carson Beck couldn’t offer, and OC Mike Bobo's play-calling suits the new guy perfectly. Expect Georgia’s defense to pressure Leonard into a couple costly turnovers.

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