In a word…

• The Frozen North finally gets off its 70s upholstered basement sofa to stick it to its Southern bullies as Notre Dame, Penn State, and Ohio State all make the semis.

• Burt and the boys preview those tasty semifinal matchups, as a red-hot Boxslayer looks to pull into positive territory on the season.

• For those invested in TTM’s First Annual Bracket Bust-Off, check out the leaderboard here! That’s right folks…Burt, Bill, and Pelo are all still in it…

Burt’s Rapid-Fire Takeaways (RFTs) from Quarterfinal Week

By Sam Ranson aka BurtReynolds69

Ohio State may be a Death Star…

And it’s the version of the Buckeyes we’ve all been waiting to see. (Not hoping to see, to be clear. Those guys can suck my bucknuts.) But it’s no secret that Ohio State invested heavily in this roster, and it appears their investment is yielding rich booty at just the right time. The Buckeyes are vibing: Ryan “Blackbeard” Day’s boys came out throwing haymakers in the Rose Bowl and immediately caught Oregon on the jaw, knocking the Ducks clear into next season. Quarterback Will Howard is playing the best ball of his career as he looks to be in complete command of Napoleonic offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s offense, freshman phenom wide receiver Jeremiah Smith—who was this close to being a ‘Nole! Fack!!—looks absolutely unstoppable, and the Scarlet and Gray’s defense, led by nasty veteran edge rushers Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau, may be the best in the country. Next up is a sexed-out Cotton Bowl semifinal against the Texas Longhorns. Grab your popcorn, folks…

Notre Dame (finally) bags itself an SEC scalp.

John Snow must have a funny feeling down in his plums right now, because the North is coming…

For the first time in…decades?...the business-end of a college football season will be settled not by Southern heavyweights, but instead will be contested (mostly) by traditional bluebloods from the North. Do I think this is an emerging trend?? ::Badger Bill’s little badger ears perk up:: No. The lion’s share of both elite prep talent and programs culturally and financially invested in winning at the highest level still resides in the South. But some variety in outcome is good for the game. To that end, Notre Dame finally—holy shit that must have felt good for Irish fans—got the SEC monkey off its back by knocking off a somewhat depleted (but still very talented and very dangerous) Georgia team in New Orleans, and they did it on their terms. They ran the ball—including with quarterback Riley Leonard, whose adolescent-deer-like legs the Irish often relied upon on third- and fourth-and-short situations—they played great defense and special teams (housing a kickoff return to open the second half, a square shot to the nesmonds of my ‘Dawgs), and they ultimately choked the life out of a Georgia team that doesn’t often get out-physicaled. The Irish now head to Miami, where they’ll likely be a slim favorite over James Franklin’s Nittany Beavers.

Texas survives a furious rally, sets up a momentous helmet game.

Well god damn…it looked like Texas had that one under control (and it looked like all of our bets were going to hit...) but then Kenny Dillingham’s Fightin’ Skattebos staged a ballsy fourth-quarter rally and pushed the Longhorns all the way to the edge (that was definitely targeting, but you don’t need us to tell you that…). Embattled quarterback Quinn Ewers responded by making the two biggest throws of his career, and Texas now moves forward to face the undoubted bully of this semifinal field, the Ohio State Buckeyes. Though they’ll be underdogs in that game, it’s a second semifinal appearance in a row for Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns, a significant milestone for a program that—despite all its booster money and helmet appeal—won only one (!!!) Big 12 title in its last 15 years in that league. Win or lose Friday night, you can’t argue that Sark doesn’t have the ‘Horns on a great heading as they wrap up Year One in the SEC.

Penn State handles its business, now faces the business end.

Good on James Franklin’s guys. They dispatched a feisty Boise State team the way a contender should: They dominated the line of scrimmage, and you could feel early on in that game that Boise was likely going to have to make a bunch of special plays just to stay in it. Now the level of competition steps up pretty considerably, and one could argue that their next opponent (Notre Dame) kiiinda looks like a better version of Penn State: a team based on trench play, ball and game-script control, and a physical, assignment-sound defense. I’ll give the Nittany Lions this: They rally to the ball and tackle extremely well. Watch for that tonight. You’ll rarely see just one Penn State defender make a tackle, because the Nittany Lions get hats to the ball. But so does Notre Dame…Going to be a physical affair there in Miami, which our boys preview—along with Ohio State-Texas—more thoroughly below.

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The Sexy Semis

With a dose of accountability…We’ve added up all their records picking against the spread (ATS) this season, which you’ll see listed next to their names.

#4 Penn State vs. #5 Notre Dame

Orange Bowl (Miami), Thursday, 7:30pm ET, Notre Dame -1.5

BurtReynolds69 (Burt is 11-12 ATS this season): Is it 1976? Did the steel mill re-open?? Grandpa’s still around and he’s psyched for this one! Somebody hop in the Cutlass and grab him another sixer a Schlitz!! What’s funny is that these teams are set up to play like it’s 1976: Downhill running, ball control, tall, rosy-cheeked white quarterbacks…One potentially important schematic difference: Though they don’t do it often, Penn State’s offense brings a critical element to the party that Notre Dame’s does not, and that’s the ability to throw it down the field. Whether it’s stud tight end Tyler Warren on a seam route, or an outside guy like Omari Evans on a go, the Nittany Lions have demonstrated an ability to take shots in spots (hey ohh!) and create game-changing explosives. But here’s the rub for me: I think the Irish do everything else just a little bit better. Though the Nittany Lions boast a big-boy duo of running backs in Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, I think Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love is more dynamic. I also love that Notre Dame can rely on Leonard’s legs as an added weapon—and one that frees up an additional blocker in the run game—on critical third and fourth downs. Finally, Notre Dame’s injury report is more favorable than the Nittany Lions’, who are praying future NFL rush end Abdul Carter can give it a go. Gimme Notre Dame in a slugfest here, 24-20.

Dr. Chim (the good doctor is 7-12 ATS this season...that medical license might be at stake again folks...): I gotta give Notre Dame credit: They were simply the better team in New Orleans a week ago, and if you’re a Penn State fan, I don’t know how confident you can be here given how hot the Irish look right now. Penn State has done what they’ve needed to do to get where they are—the god damn national semifinals—but without having really pulled off anything spectacular this season. Notre Dame has been lights out since, well, you know…This is an old school matchup between two old school clubs who will likely put an old school gameplan into action on Thursday night. At some point, a defense is going to have to lock down the Notre Dame running game and force Riley Leonard to air it out. If Abdul Carter and the rest of the Penn State defense can do that, I think they’re in a good spot to pull this one out and earn their shot at ending a nearly 40-year natty drought. Marcus Freeman’s Irish luck runs out in Miami as PSU punches its ticket to Atlanta: Penn State, 28-21.

Badger Bill (Bill is a brawny 18-12 ATS this season): In the waning moments of Penn State’s manhandling of Boise State, I gave my colleagues the mildest of takes: “Notre Dame is kinda just a better Penn State.” The Irish only leveled up from there, stealing lunch money from what once was the baddest bully on the scariest block. (We’ll save the SEC eulogy for the offseason...The North remembers, and Winter came for House Sankey.) Everything in my brain screams to keep it simple, stupid. Notre Dame has flirted with perfection for over four months now, while Penn State kinda just wins the games it should (SMU and Boise State), while coming up short when it matters most (Ohio State and Oregon). It’s a broken record at this point. So what’s gnawing at my gut and telling me that simple IS stupid here?? Notre Dame hate? Nope, I’ve got less than most. Big Ten pride? Ha! I wish no joy on any of these fuckers. Big Ten bias? Maybe, but I’ve had a good pulse on this Nittany Lions squad all season. They are remarkably unremarkable, everywhere. And yet, thoroughly competent everywhere. Boise State tried and failed to ground, pound, and control the LOS against the Nittany Lions in the Fiesta Bowl…Can Notre Dame do it in the Orange Bowl? Riley Leonard hasn’t thrown for 230 yards all year. In my mind, either that 230-yard ceiling, or the Irish’s 12-game win streak, has to cave. Badger’s Pick: These teams are separated by razor-thin margins, so I’ll be waiting to get as much intel as possible on Penn State stud DE Abdul Carter’s status before wagering on this one. His availability—and capability—is enough to tilt this game one way or the other. But I have to make a pick here, and James Franklin has indicated he thinks Carter will play. Nittany Lions prevail, 27-24.

#3 Texas vs. #6 Ohio State

Cotton Bowl (Dallas), Friday, 7:30pm ET, Ohio State -5.5

BurtReynolds69: Extreme sex appeal here (Wooderson unfortunately lives to see another sideline…), and between two programs that feel like they should always be here but frankly haven’t always been in recent years. It’s a tough one to call: Everyone’s all in on Ohio State after their twin dismantlings of Tennessee and Oregon, but we also know this Buckeyes team isn’t completely infallible. I’m on-record saying I think Texas is a really good, well-balanced football team, and my gut tells me the ‘Horns hang around in this one. I even like them to take an early lead. But at the end of the day, Ohio State has more difference-makers—particularly along the defensive line—and I think the Buckeye defense feasts for a critical stretch in this game as the juggernaut asserts its will. Gimme the Buckeyes, 34-23.

Dr. Chim: There’s not a team in the country who wants to play this Ohio State squad right now. The Buckeyes have finally hit top gear in the playoffs, and when they play at this level, they’re in a different stratosphere than the rest of the country. We know Texas is a deep, talented team, but they don’t have the horses to keep up with ole’ Just for Men’s juggernauts IF OSU plays the way they have the last two games. So if you’re Sarkisian and crew, you gotta hope they’ve burned up all their NOS in the first two rounds. Personally, I don’t think they have. At least the ‘Horns and McConaughey don’t have to travel too far to this one, though the forecast is calling for Buckeye weather in Dallas with four inches of snow on the horizon...OSU continues their unstoppable onslaught, 38-24.

Badger Bill: I don’t know what lucky shootin’ lone star decided to fall from the heavens and kiss Texas right on the ass, but the ‘Horns are in the semifinals. After shitting the bed in the fourth quarter and blowing a 16-point lead against what I’d call an unspectacular ASU team, it seemed only right that we’d be spared having to see that fat cow or McConaughey’s smug face again this season. (Although I think the Gameday crew should have to play “who smells worse?” during picks.) Alas, the most egregious non-targeting call in history stifled the Sun Devils’ potential game-winning drive, and a 4th & 13 overtime touchdown pass from Quinn Ewers later…it’s goodnight Sun Devils. Oh, Quinney boy, sweet Quinney boy…It’s all come full circle for NIL’s first million-dollar man: Having bolted on his former team after just one season in Columbus, he gets to lead his native burnt orange against the $20 million dollar Buckeyes. I have little to say about Ohio State that hasn’t already been said. At top form, they’re the best in the country. And yet, they’re far from perfect. So this one’s on Quinn. Are you a first-round talent, or just another guy ready to get pushed out by your backup? I’ll bet we can see it in his eyes pretty quick, because he’ll be staring down a five-star front four who won’t have forgotten how he got there. Badger’s Pick: Terror and doubt—from Ewers at least. The Silver Bullet freight train from hell is a one way ticket to an all-Big Ten party in Atlanta. Buckeyes, 31-20.

Boxslayer’s Weekly Booty Tips

Penn State +1 – Big Box crushed it with that Arizona State pick last week. Absolute no-brainer given Texas’ inability to put teams away. Penn State is the play this week. Yes, Notre Dame is coming off a huge win against my Bulldogs, but key injuries on defense for Notre Dame (ole’ Burt forgot to mention stud DT Riley Mills’ injury above…) are going to be the difference here. Penn State’s potent rushing attack will slow the game down and force Riley Leonard to throw it, a less-than-ideal situation for Notre Dame.

Big Box’s Final Parlay of the Week of the Year (Don’t miss a hitter, folks…)

Penn State +1 vs. Notre Dame (see above)

ND-Penn State OVER 45.5 – This screams defensive slugfest, but that hawt ‘n’ sticky Miami air is going to loosen up some big chunk plays and I think we just creep over the total here. Don’t love it, but I like it very much!

Ohio State -6 vs. Texas – I have severely underestimated the Buckeyes. They are easily the most complete team of the four left and should beat a Texas squad that always seems to squeak by. Longhorns will keep it competitive, but a late score by the Bucknuts covers.

Texas-Ohio State UNDER 53 – Just don’t think Texas scores enough here. Two solid defenses should keep things tight. Kickers will be busy in this game.