Quick Hits for the Nitwits

• Burt reviews another absolute rager of a week as teams begin to turn their attention to conference play.

• Bill, Chim, Beav, and the Boxslayer get you primed for another glorious weekend, previewing our favorite matchups...and sharing our can't-miss bets.

• To our weekly readers, a hearty thank you. Growth has been solid. THAT SAID! If you're enjoying what we're putting out, please continue to share these newsletters with friends, family, and random people on the street so we can spread the good word to folks who love the game like we do. NEWBS! Subscribe here.

Burt’s RFTs from Week 3

Stockton steps the hell up as Georgia survives an overtime thriller in Knoxville

God damn…What an all-timer in Knoxville last week, and it might be a game that Georgia fans remember as the moment when quarterback Gunner Stockton spread his wings and became a big-boy bird. A big-boy bird who fucks. Stockton answered a scintillating start from the Vols and talented signal caller Joey Aguilar with a number of explosive downfield throws of his own, and the Dawgs showed an entirely new gear on offense in a shootout overtime win before a raucous, hillbilly crowd on Rocky Top.

For Tennessee, the Vols look absolutely fine after losing several studs off last season’s playoff team. Heupel has that program in a good place, and they'll be a tough out in the SEC. For Georgia, the Dawgs will hope a gutsy win can catapult them into a good work week—a bye week—ahead of their week 5 clash with long-time bugaboo Alabama. Ty Simpson and a talented receiving corps will like some of the film they see from the Tennessee game, but you can bet Kirby will be in his dojo this week and will have his talented young DBs ready to compete next Saturday in Athens.

Miami downs the darling, prepares for back-to-back blood feuds

Miami dispatched of early-season darling South Florida the way a top-10 team should, outgaining the Bulls 576-332 in a 49-12 mauling that ends Alex Golesh’s boys’ bid to sweep to an ambitious non-conference slate. Miami now faces back-to-back matchups with hated in-state rivals Florida and Florida State, though those teams’ arrows are pointed in opposite directions right now: Miami will be heavily favored over a reeling Florida team at home, while their week 6 showdown with the ‘Noles in Tallahassee is starting to feel like one of those momentous FSU-Miami clashes of yore.

The ‘Canes are looking how Mario Cristobal wants them to look: Big, physical, pro-style on offense, tenacious on defense. Their being clear favorites over a Gator team many have written off is actually an interesting spot for them—can they maintain their focus and put together a complete performance as obvious favorites in this game? Lagway and the Gators have the weapons to hurt you, but Miami also has elite pass rushers that could frazzle the young quarterback, who looked lost in a disastrous performance against LSU last week. If the ‘Canes get to Lagway early, Florida may come apart at the seams, and Miami would likely head to Tallahassee with its highest ranking in nearly 20 years.

Ramblin’ Wreck rambles behind hardo Haynes King to put preseason favorite Clemson behind playoff 8-ball

I don't much like people who pat themselves on the back...but we told y'all! We fingered Tech—who was floating in the 35-40 range in most folks' preseason polls—as a sneaky playoff contender in the preseason, and there ain't nothing sneaky about it now. The Jackets took down preseason ACC favorite and natty hopeful Clemson behind the steel-nuts playmaking of quarterback Haynes King, who looks, plays, and sounds like he should be running Quarterback Counter for Tom Berenger in the Junction Boys. It seems pretty clear that Clemson was overhyped in the preseason (hand up here! We don't just count our wins...), but take nothing away from Tech: they gave us a preview last year when they either beat or scared to deff several higher-profile opponents, and they carried that momentum right into this season. They also dodge both Florida State and Miami in conference play, meaning you should expect to see these boys solidly in the playoff discussion as the leaves turn brown.

Texas A&M bags big-time road win as Notre Dame opens 0-2

Did we do it again? Yes we did!! We stood on the table in the preseason and said, “these boys are contenders.” Are you noticing a trend here?? Bet with us and you will literally never lose!!

Great win here for Mike Elko's Aggies. Now, do I think 2025 Notre Dame are worldbeaters? No. But they’re a program that beat multiple big dawgs en route to a national title game appearance last year, and Marcus Freeman has recruited extremely well, so a road win in South Bend ain’t nothin’ to sneeze at. Quarterback Marcel Reed is problematic with his steady but dynamic dual-threat approach, and these Aggies generally look like a far more resilient, better-coached bunch than Jimbo Fisher’s (and others’) A&M teams. They’ll now look toward a comparatively manageable SEC slate—the Aggies avoid both Georgia and Alabama—that begins with a home date versus an Auburn team that will either be soaring or sulking after their big test this weekend (see below!!).

Games that Matter

#22 Auburn vs #11 Oklahoma, 3:30pm, ABC, OU -7.5

By Dr. Chim Richalds

The WarPlainsTigers head to Norman this weekend in just the second-ever regular-season meeting between these two storied programs. Oklahoma holds a 3-0 record all-time against Auburn, with two of those wins coming in sweet, sweet, diabetes-inducing Sugar Bowl triumphs, first in 1972 and then again in 2017.

This game is being referred to as the “Breakup Bowl,” as former Oklahoma 5-star recruit Jackson Arnold returns to Norman in a bid to play spoiler to his ex-coach Brent Venables, who benched Arnold in OU’s SEC opener almost a year ago to the day. Venables reportedly told Arnold, “It’s not me, it’s you,” which kinda torpedoed their relationship and saw Arnold take a one-way flight (with several connections, I’m guessing…Norman to OKC, OKC to Memphis, Memphis to Atlanta, leap-frogging between Frontier and Spirit...) to east Alabama.

The breakup has been a net positive for both sides: Arnold's found early success—to the tune of 7 total touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and almost 200 yards rushing—in leading the Tigers to a 3-0 record, which ties the program's longest winning streak since 2019. Former Washington St. QB John Mateer has passed for almost 1,000 yards since putting on an Oklahoma uniform and has been a spark plug for a team that has struggled mightily on offense since the defensive-minded Venables took the helm. Like Arnold, Mateer brings added value as a run threat, having already totaled 150+ yards and four touchdowns on the ground.

This will be a game of matchups: Oklahoma’s passing attack has improved tremendously, and Auburn’s secondary has shown a vulnerability that could be exploited on Saturday if Mateer has the time to find his weapons downfield. OU has a deep cadre of pass-catchers, as TE Jaren Kanak and WR Deion Burks have eclipsed 200 yards in 3 games and Keontez Lewis and Isaiah Sategna aren't far behind. On the flip, Auburn has given up 660 passing yards in three games against Baylor, Ball St. and South Alabama.

THAT SAID...Auburn's been gobbling up rushing yards in droves. The Tigers are averaging 242 rushing YPG behind a deep backfield anchored by Jeremiah Cobb, who's rushed for 314 yards and 4 touchdowns through 3 weeks. Could the running attack combined with a crazy jaded Ex be just what the Tigers need to grab an early lead, control the tempo of this game, and score their first-ever victory against OU?

Chim’s Pick: Venables’ crew looks night-and-day different from last year, and I don’t trust Hugh Freeze's sleazy ass to come in and slow down the Sooner Schooner. OU 34-24.

#17 Texas Tech at #16 Utah, 12pm ET, FOX, Utah -3.5

By Big 12 Beav

The two best teams west of… Hold on, let me grab an atlas and a protractor. Bear with me. Okay, the two best teams west of Austin and south of Eugene square off this weekend for Big Noon Kickoff. That doesn’t quite have the ring to it that I was hoping, but I forgot that Oregon even existed and this will have to do. The Utes (What was that word? Did you say…”Utes”?) and the Fighting Mahomes’ have their sights set on the CFP and need a signature win because you could not create a worse SOS if you tried - they’ve so far combined to beat UCLA, Oregon State, Wyoming, Kent State, Cal Poly (I thought this was only a fake school in 80s movies…), and Arkansas Pine-Bluff by a combined score of 311 to 60...

So Utah faces its first real test since a 5-7 campaign in 2024 that was derailed by QB injuries and an ensuing and unfortunate reliance on Zach Wilson’s baby brother (god I bet that kid cleans up at the local wine bar...). They brought in ultra dual-threat QB Devon Dampier and his OC Jason Beck from New Mexico to right the ship offensively, Utah has a typically good offensive line and defense...but I don’t trust Dampier’s arm or his receivers.

What I do trust is that oil money—that Texas tea, that Black Gold—to bring in some hot transfers. Texas Tech spent more money in the portal than maybe anybody else in the offseason. They bought the best D-Line money can buy with David Bailey from Stanford, Romello Height from Georgia Tech, and Lee Hunter from UCF. The key, for me, in this one is whether that crew can contain Dampier’s legs. Tech’s QB Morton isn’t going to win the game on his own like Dampier might, but I like the pieces around Morton to make the difference here.

Big 12 Beav’s pick: I’m taking those petrodollars straight to the bank and hoping this guy (see below) isn't hanging around in the parking lot...Gimme Tech for the win, straight up.

#9 Illinois at #19 Indiana, 7:30pm, NBC (and the ‘Cock), IU -6.5

By Badger Bill

In the world of shit-talkin’ college football coaches, this one might be Ali vs. Frazier.

Bret Bielema and Curt Cignetti are as boisterous and big-mouthed as they come. Add in the major playoff implications, and that makes Saturday night’s showdown in Bloomington must-see TV.

Unfortunately for us, they’ve uncharacteristically played it cool this week...Lots of praise and respect for each other and their teams, blah blah blah. A cat fight worthy of a UFC weigh-in certainly would've been more fun. But make no mistake about it, the claws will come out. There’s just too much on the line.

For Bielema, it’s year 5 at Illinois...Same year he won his first Big Ten title at Wisconsin...Same year he got canned at Arkansas. They brought back the most production in the league, including QB Luke Altmyer and their entire offensive line. The schedule is very favorable. And Bielema might not get an opportunity like this again at Illinois.

Which makes a victory over the Hoosiers all that more essential. A mid-October visit from Ohio State aside, Illinois’ schedule just doesn’t have many opportunities for signature wins. Does 10-2 in a deep Big Ten, potentially without a ranked win on the resume, get Illinois in the playoffs? Bielema doesn’t want to find out.

For Cignetti, it’s all about keeping the pedal to the metal. He’s started the past two seasons 10-0—first at James Madison and then in year 1 at Indiana—making him the only coach in college football history to do so at different schools. His elevation of the Hoosiers from Big Ten dumpster diver straight into the CFP will be remembered as one of the great turnarounds of all time.

Spoiler alert, though… Indiana ain't starting 10-0 this year. With trips to Oregon and Penn State on tap, there’s no backdoor into the playoffs. Schools like Indiana rarely reach the mountain top, and the fall often comes much easier. For Illinois, relevancy requires wins. A top-10 matchup with a border rival ain’t a bad place to start.

Badger’s Pick: Lock of the century is Bielema or Cignetti crossing the hash lines near mid-field, pointing a red, sausage-looking finger, and screaming at the far sideline. But I guess that’s not my purpose here...You might not know about Indiana QB (and Cal transfer) Fernando Mendoza. You will after Saturday. Hoosiers 35-31.

Boxslayer’s Weekly Smash ‘n’ Grab

(Box Locks season record: 2-2; Big Box Three-Way Plays hit: 0)

Week 3 Recap: Welp...chalk up another tough-luck loss for the Box. Who’d a thunk Vandy had it in 'em to go head-hunting and knock LaNorris Sellers out the game in the first damn quarter? Sellers is pretty clearly the heart and soul of that team, because the ‘Cocks had nothing left once he exited. On the Vandy side, Pavia's proving last year wasn’t a fluke and has the ‘Dores absolutely humming. Not their last upset of the season, folks…

Boxslayer’s Box Lock of the Week: Texas Tech at Utah - In one of the best games of a leaner week (week 4 sux!! [gets carried out of the room by big-wig editors]), the Utes are an absolute unit, and look to me like they may be the team to beat in the Big 12 this year. Texas Tech loaded up in the portal and ain’t no slouch, but this Utah team finally looks strong on both sides of the ball. Expect a high-scoring affair at altitude. Utah wins the turnover battle and covers in a great one: Back 'em at -3.5.

Big Box’s Weekly Three-Way Play

1. TCU -6.5 - Dallas...Fort Worth… same thing, right??? In a battle of whose daddy has the best country club membership, I like the Horny Frogs to come out hot and never look back. SMU remains explosive, but they don't look like the buttoned-up operation that made the playoffs last season. Frogs by multiple touchdowns.
2. BYU - 6.5 - ECU has played Campbell (fun fact - Box used to go to basketball camp at the home of the FIghting Camels) and Coastal Carolina. They are now facing a disciplined defense and an offense that can score in bunches. It shouldn’t be close.
3. Illinois/Indiana OVER 52.5 - Indiana is averaging 52 points per game, with Illinois at 45. Going to be a warm and dry Saturday night in Bloomington, and this one screams shootout to the Box man. Pound the over.

Badger Bill’s B1G Lock

(B1G Locks season record: 4-0)

Last week I told you to back Cal over Minnesota because of the long travel and the late kick. Cha-ching. This week is even gnarlier for Michigan State (East Lansing's on Eastern Time, for you geography buffs out there), who travels even further and kicks off even later (8pm in La La Land, 11pm back at the plant in Detroit). USC looks prettayy, prettayyyy good so far…just like Burt told you they would be…and I expect them to put those sleepy Spartans to bed early. Back the Trojans at -17.5.

New here? Then get in on this man...Subscribe here and we'll keep your ass locked in all season.