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• Week one is full of titillating inter-conference bouts. We preview those matchups below.

A Recap for the Haters (the Gators, the angry Penn Staters, etc.)

Outplayed and outcoached, my ‘Noles—who swaggered into Dublin like Conor McGregor into a Cranberries concert—emerge from their week 0 tilt against Georgia Tech with a big black eye and an 0-1 record. Georgia Tech, who entered the game as 10 ½ point underdogs, thoroughly outplayed Florida State in the trenches, allowing them to control the tempo of the game with a varied and highly effective rushing attack. That FSU’s supposedly elite defensive line was unable to break out of the stack and create negative plays that would get Georgia Tech’s methodical offense behind schedule was both a testament to the strength of the Jackets’ veteran offensive line—who paved the way for the ACC’s most potent rushing attack last season—and a huge red flag for the Seminoles, who were basing their expectations of a rugged defense on a dominant unit up front.

Outside of an impressive opening drive they capped with a statement-laced two-point conversion, FSU’s offense was plodding, its offensive line play underwhelming (tell me if you’ve heard that before, ‘Nole fans), and its quarterback play uneven. Transfer quarterback DJ Uiagalelei hit a couple of critical fourth down throws in leading FSU to a game-tying touchdown midway through the fourth quarter, but also missed two crucial deep balls early in the second half that may have flipped the script and put game pressure back on the Yellow Jackets. Instead, Tech’s defense succeeded both in limiting explosive plays and in completely stymying what we had projected to be a beefy and dynamic FSU run game, and the training wheels seemed very much still on the bike for the FSU passing attack, even as Georgia Tech’s linebackers and safeties flew downhill to stop the run on first and second downs.

Haynes King showed mental and physical toughness in leading Tech’s offense—while probably getting lucky to not lose at least one fumble on mishandled snaps/handoffs—and made the throws he needed to make in the second half after largely not being forced to use his arm in the first.

For the ‘Noles, it’s a long road ahead. A Labor Day night home bout with Boston College—your boy will be in attendance, because we don’t fucking quit on our guys after a loss—offers an opportunity to get right and regain some confidence, and it’s possible FSU scratches its way to 3-1 heading into a trip to Dallas to face new ACC foe SMU. Can they find a combination they like on the offensive line, and a couple bread-and-butter running plays to lean on? If not, will Mike Norvell continue to beat his head against the wall trying to establish a run-first mentality?

Georgia Tech, who must be flying higher than an engineering major at a Tetris tournament, now faces an exceedingly manageable first-half schedule, and should be 4-0 when they travel to Louisville on September 21. My feeling is that a lot of teams will struggle to stop the Jackets’ rushing attack this season.

Week 1’s Sumptuous Offerings

By Michael Brown and Sam Ranson

(Note: This week we’ll be debuting our expert pickers—which is just us using super secret aliases. The super secret aliases are necessary to keep the haters/super horny fans at bay.)

Miami Hurricanes at Florida Gators

3:30pm ET, ABC, Miami -2.5

This one’s going to be nasty folks (think Wild Things...). These teams don’t like one another, and both Florida head coach Billy Napier and Miami head coach Mario Cristobal need this game badly as proof of upward trajectory within their programs. Add in the late-summer heat of a 3:30 kick in The Swamp—and the desperation of a wounded but prideful Gator fanbase—and you’ve got all the ingredients of an absolute street fight of a rivalry game.

One of my Gator “friends” (completely kidding! He’s a decent dude) said something along the lines of, “We won’t lose to a ‘mediocre’ U at home.” I don’t think this Miami team’s going to be mediocre. I think—at least from a talent standpoint—they’re going to be better than any Miami team we’ve seen in some time. That said, they are playing with a lot of portal rentals (including starting quarterback Cam Ward), and their team culture has been anything but resilient in recent years. When the going gets tough, Miami teams of the modern era fold like an accordion in the hands of John Candy. If Florida gets out to an early lead and The Swamp is rocking, where does Miami go mentally? Are they prepared for a four-quarter fight?

On the Florida side, where is that defense in year two under defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong, who looks like a sixth-year fraternity guy who just got busted for some highly distasteful form of hazing? I fully expect the Gators to come out foaming at the mouth with their crowd behind them and with everything riding on this game (specifically, their self-belief as they head into probably the toughest schedule we’ve ever seen), but will they blow coverages on the back end like they did last year? If so, Miami is equipped to hurt them.

Offensively for Florida, quarterback Graham Mertz returns after a highly efficient season a year ago. He’s got playmakers to work with too, like stud wide receiver Tre Wilson and bellcow running back Montrell Johnson, but Florida’s revamped offensive line will face a stiff test from a talented and aggressive Miami front. 

Which team is able to impose its will in the trenches? Which quarterback limits mistakes—while taking advantage of any early opportunities—in a highly charged environment? Can Ward, who was a bit of a turnover machine last year at Washington State and who likely hasn’t faced a road environment like this one, avoid the costly fumble or interception that gives Mertz and the Gators a short field and an early leg up? I’ll tell you this: we here at TTM can’t fucking wait to find out.

BurtReynolds69’s Pick: Florida wins a tense, physical game—watch for plenty of pregame and post-play yapping—with a late field goal, as Billy Napier buys himself some much-needed breathing room. Florida 23-20. ::Throws up in mouth::

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Clemson Tigers

Noon ET, ABC, Georgia -12.5

The Bulldogs are 13 ½ point favorites against the Taters this weekend in the Aflac Kickoff Game in Atlanta. The last time these squads met—another week one tilt at the 2021 World Famous Duke’s Mayo Classic (aka the Will Levis Bowl)—a nerve-wracking ordeal saw a dominant ‘Dawgs defense choke the Tigers out in a 10-3 victory. (A quick aside: Both starting QBs in that game were pre-season Heisman hopefuls—DJ Uiagalelei and JT Daniels—and both are somehow still playing college football, now at their third and fourth schools, respectively. That 10-3 final makes a lot of sense in hindsight… “DJ just isn’t a good fit for [insert school]’s system!!!!” Yeah, sure...)

This year, Georgia has a real Heisman hopeful and likely first round pick in starting quarterback Carson Beck. The ‘Dawgs did lose a lot of pass-catching talent in last year’s draft in Brock Bowers, Ladd McConkey, and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, so it will be interesting to see who steps up on the receiving end of the passing game for Georgia. The obvious answer to most ‘Dawg fans is junior tight end Oscar Delp, who played well last year as TE2 behind Bowers. Delp is physically imposing and plays as more of a true tight end than Bowers IMHO.

A bigger question mark for the offense may actually be at running back, as there is still no word on whether Trevor Etienne will face some sort of suspension following his offseason—wait for it—traffic arrest. Behind Etienne are Roderick Robinson, who just had toe surgery, and the powerful Branson Robinson, who missed all of last season with a torn patellar tendon (hot take: we still think the latter's ceiling is Nick Chubb when healthy). 

As we mentioned in our Preseason Tiers preview last week, Georgia either returns veteran talent or has reloaded through the portal at virtually every position. On defense, it will be interesting to see what kind of run freshman safety KJ Bolden gets this weekend. Bolden has drawn comparisons to stud junior safety Malaki Starks, who endeared himself to Georgia fans with a pick against Oregon in his freshman debut in 2022.

As for Clemson, following a disappointing 9-4 season (by Clemson standards) and given Dabo’s head-scratching refusal to utilize college free agency, the Tigers are in a bit of a “We’ll believe it when we see it” spot for us. If we’re playing devil’s advocate for the sake of “impartiality,” we’ll say the Tigers’ best bet is to exploit the Dawgs’ secondary opposite whatever side Starks is on. 

It’s worth noting that Clemson capped last season off with five straight wins, including a Gator Bowl victory over a decent Kentucky team, and stud running back Phil Mafah played well down the stretch. Key question for us: Can Mafah and a veteran Tiger offensive line establish some semblance of a run game to take pressure off Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik? Klubnik comes into his second year as starter and has had some bright moments, but we’re hearing the same shit we hear all the time about young, highly-touted quarterbacks who don’t look quite ready when first thrown into the fire. “Last year really helped him grow.” “He’s improving each day.” Yada, yada, yada…We’ll see. 

Dr.ChimRichalds’ Pick: ‘Dawgs by infinity! Alright, fine…’Dawgs control this one in the second half, making Clemson's offense one dimensional and covering the spread. Georgia 35-14.

Penn State Nittany Lions at West Virginia Mountaineers

Noon ET, FOX, Penn State -8.5

I’ll address this right off the jump: I know some Penn State fans out there weren’t super jazzed with my preseason writeup for their team, and I get it. It was inflammatory, and probably needlessly so. So I’ll say this: I’ve always respected Penn State (except for that one time…)—legit tradition, sick unis, a great home environment, all those brutal Polish linebackers. Back in the 90s when my ‘Noles were running shit, Penn State was always a team we were keeping an eye on.

But here’s my message to Penn State folks in the modern day: Do something! Win something! Win anything! You’ve been close under Franklin, but it’s going to take breaking through in a big moment for me to mentally elevate Penn State back to that top tier, because I’ve been burned many times now in the past few years (as I know you have!!). Maybe that happens this year. I know Drew Allar’s been billed as a potential superstud, so maybe he lights this ballyhooed Ohio State team up in a Whiteout game and Penn State reclaims its perch among the modern heavies. It’s possible. I’m here for it if it happens, and we’ll cover the shit out of it if it does. Anyway, on to the game…

In another sexy ‘n’ nasty rivalry game (well, a rivalry in proximity…Penn State has won 49 of 61 meetings), Penn State heads into the hills of West Virginia to face Neal Brown and Sunshine on my God Damn Shoulders John Denver’s West Virginia Mountaineers, who were one of the nation’s surprise packages last season. It’s probably helpful for Penn State that this isn’t a night game, as the moonshine would’ve soaked in and that place would be absolutely rocking if it were. Still, we expect West Virginia to fly around like the future of the mine depends on it.

Here’s what we’re watching for: Does Penn State’s superior size—they average about 15 pounds heavier on the offensive line—and talent—they’ve far out-recruited West Virginia by every metric—simply overwhelm the Mountaineers as it did when the two met in Happy Valley last year? Or can West Virginia stone Penn State’s rushing attack and pull the Nittany Lions into a game they’d probably rather not play, which is Drew Allar dropping back and throwing to unproven receivers in obvious passing situations? Perhaps Allar, who protected the ball well last season but looked reticent to push it down the field, takes a leap forward this year, and that transformation may need to begin this weekend if the Mountaineers are able to slow Penn State’s bruising rushing attack.

On the flip side, can a veteran-laden West Virginia offense, led by quarterback Garrett Greene and a salty—if undersized—offensive line (is there anything more West Virginia than that?) establish itself against a rugged Penn State defense? If they can develop some early confidence, they’re an explosive unit that could keep this thing a game well into the second half.

BurtReynolds69’s Pick: West Virginia comes out with their hair on fire and leads at half, but Penn State’s superior size and physicality are too much in the end. Penn State 34-24.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Texas A&M Aggies

7:30pm ET, ABC, TAMU -2.5

College Gameday is coming to you from College Station, Texas in week one as Notre Dame crusades south to battle the Aggies. Not a surprise here, but the guest picker for this week is none other than 2012 Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel. Rumor has it ESPN developed an online relationship with Manti Te’o and tricked him into thinking HE would be guest picker before pulling the rug out from under him!

I’ll start off by giving a little bit of credit to one person on each of these teams: Aggie head coach Mike Elko (great get by A&M) and ND quarterback Riley Leonard, both of whom had enough sense to get the hell out of Durham, North Carolina. Nothing against Duke football. Everything against Duke basketball, and Duke as an institution…

Apart from a trip to the Coliseum in November, this will likely be the hardest road trip Notre Dame faces this season. The Irish have recruited well under Freeman, and on top of that were active in the transfer portal this offseason. Leonard, while he has dealt with some injury trouble, is several years younger than heartthrob Sam Hartman was when he (wrongfully) decided to trade beautiful Winston-Salem, North Carolina for the grey autumns of South Bend. To put it bluntly, I think Leonard has more upside if he can stay on the field. The biggest question mark for ND is their young offensive line—three sophomores and two freshmen—especially after Charles Jagusah was ruled out for the season after he ripped a tit a few weeks ago.

For Texas A&M, this is good news, as their defensive line is likely their deepest unit on either side of the ball. The Aggies’ front seven added freak defensive end Nic Scourton, who led the Big Ten in sacks last year at Purdue. If Scourton can pick up where he left off, I wouldn’t be surprised if A&M can hold the Irish to under 100 yards rushing. Also, since I’ve already mentioned two of them, a third 2012 Heisman finalist, Collin Klein, is the OC and QB coach for the Aggies now. Pointless tidbit? You be the judge…

Outside the lines, the matchup features two fanbases that would make David Koresh happy in pants. The holier-than-thou folks from South Bend are too good to join a conference, which means regardless of how well they do this year, they’re playing for the five seed in the College Football Playoff (well played!). On the home side of Kyle Field sits the 12th man and the famous Yell Leaders. This is like one of those “which lunch table are you sitting at” memes except the best answer is to just eat your sloppy joe in a bathroom stall by yourself…

Dr.ChimRichalds’ Pick: Notre Dame leads early but wilts late in the Texas heat—and under the pressure of 100,000 weirdos in Kyle Field—dropping a close one. Texas A&M 27-24.

USC Trojans vs. LSU Tigers

Sunday, 7:30pm ET, ABC, LSU -4.5

Talk about two seemingly slam-dunk hires that probably head into year three of their respective tenures in different (specifically, more high-pressure) situations than they’d envisioned. Legitimate talent litters both of these rosters, but LSU and USC each lose Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks off of teams that, by their and their fans’ lofty expectations, unperformed a season ago. A primetime Sunday tilt in Sin City gives both Lincoln Riley and Brian Kelly a huge opportunity to bag a program-boosting win straight out of the gate.

USC is hoping that a stellar stand-in performance from quarterback Miller Moss in last year’s bowl game carries into this season, as number one overall pick Caleb Williams will be throwing passes for Da Bears this fall. Riley’s potency as an offensive architect and playcaller is well documented, and though the Trojans are also replacing their top two running backs, top two wide receivers, and three starting offensive linemen, Riley hit the portal hard to replenish those positions, and it’s doubtful USC fans are all that worried about his ability to engineer points.

The much larger concern—as it has been going back to Riley’s time at Oklahoma—will be whether or not the USC defense can stop anything with a pulse. Again, the Trojans portal’d hard in an attempt to address a lack of physicality on that side of the ball, so the question will be whether new defensive coordinator—a rising star who USC poached from crosstown rival UCLA—can fit those pieces together and show significant progress in year one.

Though LSU must also replace a first-round, Heisman-Trophy winning quarterback and a bevy of talented playmakers, the primary question for most Bayou Bengal fans this year likely also revolves around the defense, which was an absolute sieve last season despite the presence of multiple early-round NFL draft picks. Brian Kelly lured Missouri defensive coordinator Blake Baker to address the issue—making him the highest-paid college assistant in the process—and the hope is that the unit, whose defensive backfield was an uncharacteristic mess last fall, can avoid blown assignments and play a more cohesive brand of defensive football this fall.

Strong-armed quarterback Garrett Nussmeier steps in to replace Jayden Daniels and will play behind a talented, veteran offensive line, as Kelly likely feels about as good as he reasonably could about the offense given all the firepower they’re replacing.

BurtReynolds69’s Pick: LSU wins a competitive but somewhat sloppy affair in Vegas, as the Tigers look better along the lines of scrimmage and Nussmeier appears a step ahead of Moss in his development. LSU 31-21.

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