For the Lazy Ones...

• Texas and Tennessee are good (go orange!), Michigan’s going to struggle to score this year, Alabama’s got some things to figure out, Notre Dame’s got a cupcake problem, and Oregon’s lucky to be undefeated.

• We preview a decent slate this weekend, as more conference games begin to pepper the schedule.

• New to TTM? Been here and liking what we're doing? Help us get the word out by subscribing—or berating your friends to subscribe—here!

TTM: Week 2 Rapid-Fire Takeaways

By Sam Ranson

Welcome back folks! So we had a big business meeting this week, and we decided that we can’t only discuss games to come. With that in mind, we’re going to start firing off hip-shot takes on what we saw the weekend before. Our rapid-fire takeaways from Week 2:

Texas is legit. (Great analysis!) Michigan may be challenged offensively, but that Wolverine defense is still brawny and Texas kinda did whatever they wanted. For the first time in a long time, the ‘Horns look to have a deep and physical unit along the offensive line, and Quinn Ewers is in full control of that system right now. Extremely dangerous team there in Austin, and we very much look forward to watching them work their way through their first SEC schedule, which peaks in mid-October with back-to-back heavyweight bouts against Oklahoma and Georgia.

Michigan’s a bit of a rebuild. I know Wolverine fans don’t want to hear that, but they’re going to have to be patient with Sharrone Moore as he works to build this thing back to 2023 levels, especially on offense, where he’s gotta start by finding himself a quarterback. Michigan’s defense is solid and they’ll likely win plenty of games this year on the strength of that unit and a physical rushing attack—those ingredients tend to play in the Big Ten—but the 2024 Wolverines look to have a hard cap on their potential due to that quarterback situation and a seeming lack of playmakers on the outside. A September 21 home date with USC offers Moore an opportunity to re-establish upward momentum within his program.

Alabama looks…different. That’s not to say they look bad or that they won’t grow throughout the season—they almost certainly will—but I haven’t seen an Alabama offensive line get bullied like that in…10 years? I think DeBoer’s still learning this team—that’s natural two games into a coach’s tenure—but he better figure out what he wants this offense to be. Does he want to throw it all over the yard? Can the offensive line block it up for them to do that? Or does he bite the bullet and run Jalen Milroe 10 to 15 times a game? (The latter’s what our ‘Bama friends would like to see, and I bet it’s what we see at Wisconsin on Saturday.) One thing we know for damn sure: That strategic decision better be made before the ‘Dawgs come calling in late September…

Notre Dame’s got a cupcake problem. Yes, Marcus Freeman’s teams have beaten 7 ranked opponents in his young tenure, but, after Saturday’s stunning home loss to four-touchdown underdog Northern Illinois, his Irish have also now lost home games to Marshall, Stanford, and Northern Illinois, and Notre Dame were at least two-touchdown favorites in all of those games. It would seem that although Freeman is succeeding—at least by the recruiting rankings—in stocking Noah’s Ark with a greater depth of high-end talent, his teams are making a habit of not showing up in games where they’re prohibitive favorites. The Northern Illinois loss must be especially painful for Irish fans, as Notre Dame had just bagged a big road win at Texas A&M, and now face an extremely manageable schedule the rest of the way (i.e., Notre Dame fans spent the past week dreaming of an undefeated season).

Oregon’s lucky to be 2-0. Boise State probably outplayed the Ducks in Autzen late Saturday night, as Oregon needed a punt return and a kick return for touchdown to outlast the Broncos. Ashton Jeanty, a beast of a running back for Boise State who you’ll be drafting in your NFL fantasy league next year, ate in the run game, and the Broncos got after Oregon’s highly touted offensive line, limiting the Ducks’ rushing attack and pressuring Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel throughout. Simply put: Oregon’s going to have to be better, particularly in the trenches, if they want to make the kind of noise they believe they can make this season. A grudge match with jilted ex Oregon State awaits this weekend.

Tennessee’s dangerous. Nico Iamagonnablowupmymoonshinestill didn’t play all that well, yet the ‘Vols absolutely brutalized NC State—a team who will probably win 8ish games this season—on a neutral field. Tennessee’s defensive front suffocated the Wolfpack from the jump, harassing quarterback Grayson McCall into three turnovers, including an 87-yard pick six that blew the game open in the second quarter. Tennessee outgained NC State 460 to 143 (!!!) on the evening, and the result should serve as a warning shot to the rest of the SEC: Tennessee’s going to be a tough out—and perhaps even more than that—if Nico continues to grow throughout the season, and if the Vol defense has taken the step forward it appears it may have.

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Week 3’s Tasty Treats

#20 Arizona at #14 Kansas State

Friday, 8pm ET, FOX, KSU -7.5

::SIRENS BLARE…GROUND SHAKES:: It’s our…SNEAKY BANGER OF THE WEEK!!

By Sam Ranson

A little Friday night action for that ass, and with a nice Old West feel to it, as a 2-0 Arizona squad travels to the Little Apple to face a 2-0 Kansas State team that narrowly (and somewhat luckily) survived a scare from Tulane last week. Hell, Clark W. Griswold and the family might zip up from Liberal to catch this one after taking in the world’s largest ball of clay! 

We’re not sure many people realize how impressive Arizona’s close to last season was: the Wildcats beat FIVE ranked teams in the last seven weeks, including a blowout of former Pac-12 bully Utah and a two-touchdown win over new “SEC” “power” Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl. Arizona did lose their head coach Jedd Fisch to Washington, but were able to retain talented young signal caller Noah Fifita and a slew of offensive playmakers. The key question for us is whether the Wildcat defense will be up to the task–they gave up 39 points to New Mexico in Week 1, including 215 yards rushing–against a Kansas State offense that’s hellbent on running it up people’s asses.

For Powercat, they’ll have spent this week trying to get their passing defense in order, as Tulane shredded a traditionally stingy secondary for 342 yards through the air. Arizona will absolutely look to exploit that, and if they can–and if Kansas State’s young offensive line is unable to create explosive plays in the run game–is highly-touted sophomore quarterback Avery Johnson ready to lead his team in a shootout? 

This one has all the ingredients of a High Plains shootout folks…lock in and let it supplement your Friday night.

BurtReynolds69’s Pick: Kansas State wins a barn-burner at home as Arizona puts forth a strong effort in its Big 12 debut (and covers). KSU 38-34.

#4 Alabama at Wisconsin,

Noon ET, FOX, Alabama -16.5

By Billy Lowry

We Want…‘Bama?

Cold days and conference play are on the horizon, but not this weekend as #4 Alabama travels to Madison, Wisconsin for their first true road game above the Mason-Dixon Line since the first Obama administration.

This matchup comes at a crossroad for both programs. New ‘Bama coach Kalen DeBoer is trying to put his stamp on the program after taking over for the GOAT. A lackluster opening three quarters against USF is the first seed of doubt, but the Tide finished that game strong and looked great in their opener.

As for my Badgers? Well, it’s time to put up or shut up. The lauded hire of Luke Fickell has been as dull as a toothache 15 games in. The Dairy Air Raid has taken off like baby puffins, and a once-proud defense continues to look more cushion than pin. My expert analysis can assure you this game will be decided at the LOS where the Wisconsin defense has given up 121.5 yards per game on 4 yards per carry to Western Michigan and FCS foe South Dakota. Not the ideal host for a ‘Bama ground attack that’s clocked 533 yards and 10 touchdowns in two games.

But it’s Camp Randall. It’s Jump Around. It’s Madison…Like the Confederate POW camp that once stood on those hallowed grounds, it’s a place where the best laid plans often go awry.

A bit of history: The programs have met twice–a 15-0 home win for the Badgers in 1928 (that’s right!), and a vintage 35-17 ‘Bama takedown to open the 2015 season in Jerry World. Derrick Henry truck-sticked Wisconsin safety Michael Caputo so hard in that one that Caputo tried to line up in the Alabama backfield on the next play (see above...).

A stat to know: Wisconsin has only been a home underdog 8 times in the last two decades, and they’ve gone 6-2 against the spread in those games. They’re 16.5 point ‘dogs in this one.

Badger Bill’s Pick: To quote a great man, "Don’t ever take sides with anyone against the family again. Ever." (Badger Bill abstains from making a pick... make of that what you will...Instead, Bill would like to offer you his B1G Lock of the Week: Indiana -3. From Bill: "Rourke will chuck it. Bruins will suck it.")

#16 LSU at South Carolina

Noon ET, ABC, LSU -6.5

By Michael Brown

It’s been exactly 10 years since College Gameday last set up their stages in Columbia, South Carolina. In 2014, Maty Mauk (Maty! Remember that one??) and the Missourah Tahgers traveled to the South Carolina capital and left with a 21-20 victory. This Saturday, another group of Tigers will look to replicate that sacking, as Brian Kelly, in his third year of faking a southern accent, and his LSU Tahguhs travel to the sweaty gym sock that is Columbia in September in search of a fat chicken dinner.

After dropping a close one to the real USC in the Modelo Vegas Kickoff Classic (classic??), LSU ultimately dispatched Nicholls State last weekend, despite the Colonels putting up 21 points and hanging around into the second half. The Tiger run defense looked questionable, as NSU running back Collin Guggenheim put on an absolute exhibit (get it?!), rushing for 145 yards and two touchdowns. LSU can’t afford to be too cocky this weekend, and will need to tighten the screws on defense or risk getting run over by a Carolina team that will want to be physical in a juiced environment in Williams-Brice. QB Garrett Nussmeier has looked confident slangin’ that thang around, completing 75% of his passes for 610 yards and eight touchdowns in two games. The South Carolina secondary will have their hands full if Nussmeier brings it on Saturday.

After eking out an uncomfortable win against Old Dominion in Week 1, South Carolina moved to 2-0 with a vastly improved effort against Kentucky, dismantling the Wildcats in Lexington. Still, the ‘Cocks’ offense has looked a bit flaccid, averaging only 270 yards a game, but their defense has been downright fun to watch, particularly true freshman edge rusher Dylan Stewart. The 6’5”, 250 pounder has looked a scary proposition for opposing offenses. I don’t know much about the Kentucky offensive line (BurtReynolds69: They’re bad), but watching him beat a triple team and force Brock Vandagriff to throw it into the bleachers was more than impressive. 

The real story here is the coaches. Brian Kelly may not be on the hot seat yet, but that seat certainly isn’t cool…I’d say it’s warm enough that he’s starting to get a little bit of swamp ass, but not so much that you could tell if he stood up in front of you…If the Tigers lose this weekend, Kelly is fully on the hot seat–you’ll be able to see it, and frankly, you may be able to smell it.

On the other side, Lil’ Beamer is faced with a huge opportunity to flip the script after many folks this offseason felt like his window to win in Columbia had passed him by. South Carolina’s a proud program (we’re not quite sure why…), and they’ll back him with legitimate resources if he can bag a couple big scalps–like this one–in conference play this season.

Dr. Chim Richalds’ Pick: I want LSU to lose this game. Badly. Unfortunately, I think they’re a hurdle juuust a bit too high for the 'Cocks. LSU, 24-13.

Texas A&M at Florida

3:30pm ET, ABC, TAMU -3.5

By Sam Ranson

“Why are they covering this game?” asked the discerning reader. “These teams are mid af,” said the mulleted Gen Z’er. Fair points all around. Neither of these teams will contend for a playoff spot this season, but we still find this game interesting from a program trajectory standpoint. Can Mike Elko bag an early “signature” (heavy air quotes) win to inject a nitrous-oxide high into his oil-drunk, automatic rifle-crazed fanbase? Is this Buzzcut Billy’s last stand in Gainesville? (If he loses, that answer is yes.)

For Florida, Gator fans are dying for Napier to make the full-time switch to freshman phenom quarterback DJ Lagway, who threw for 456 yards and three touchdowns against Samford last week. A revelatory stretch for Lagway–ideally leading to a few upset wins for Florida–would seem to be Napier’s only prayer at keeping his job through the end of this season, so not turning to the freshman, and instead continuing to mix in banged-up veteran Graham Mertz, would be as head-scratching a decision to us as it would be to an inflamed, butthurt, and potentially infected Gator fanbase. Either way, Florida’s offensive line may have its hands full containing a very talented Aggie defensive front.

Texas A&M, who rebounded from a Week 1 loss to Notre Dame by comfortably dispatching McNeese State (man the SEC’s been impressive in the out-of-conference!), will likely need to get some semblance of a passing game going, as Florida will almost certainly sell out to stop the run and force the Aggies to make hay through the air. Notre Dame held quarterback Conner Weigman to just 100 yards passing, which rendered the Texas A&M offense one-dimensional and largely impotent. Can Weigman exploit a Florida secondary that still seems susceptible to coverage busts? If not, we think this one has all the trappings of a low-scoring, ugly affair.

BurtReynolds69’s Pick: The better-coached, more motivated team wins a defensive battle in a dejected Swamp. Texas A&M, 23-17.

BoxSlayer’s Honor: Very Much at Stake

“Why do we fall, sir?  So that we can learn to pick ourselves up.” -Alfred Pennysworth

(Crowd boos mercilessly, women’s underpants are replaced in the ring by signed copies of Tim Tebow’s biography, a wounded and likely intoxicated BoxSlayer limps his way back into the ring.)

So Big Box got burned by a poor second half performance by the Iowa Hawkeyes last week. It’s okay! ::Tony Montana voice:: I’m okay!!...And I’m ready to get back up on that pogo stick baby. So here’s my Pick of the Week, and my trademark 5-Game Parlay. Bet with me if your girl likes fancy earrings and dinners at Red Lobster…

BoxSlayer’s Pick of the Week (3 units)

LSU -6.5

South Carolina is not a good team…at all. That said, I love their freshman quarterback, and think he can become a star…but he’s not there yet. The ‘Cocks have yet to play a good team this season and will be overwhelmed early by a pissed-off LSU team. The Tigers and Nussmeier come out hot and handle South Carolina: Big Box likes the Bayou Bengals by 14.

Boxslayer’s Trademark 5-Game Parlay (let’s keep it at 1 unit):

• Florida State -6.5 – Third time’s the charm for the ‘Noles, who cover in Doak.
• Buffalo -3.5 – UMass stinks. Back the Bulls at home.
• Texas A&M -3.5 – Florida’s lost and A&M’s hungry to prove itself.  
• Oklahoma -13 – Oklahoma’s a good football team–forget last week–and takes care of Tulane in Norman this weekend.
• Georgia -22 – The ‘Dawgs are rolling right now, while Kentucky’s coming off that blowout loss to South Carolina.  Georgia takes care of business on both sides of the ball and may cover 22 points in the first half.

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