Well god damn…You wait all year for it, and then it rockets past like Wile E. on a TNT-studded missile. Here we are entering the final month of the regular season folks…
Sam Ranson - Nov. 22, 2024
Well god damn…You wait all year for it, and then it rockets past like Wile E. on a TNT-studded missile. Here we are entering the final month of the regular season folks…
For some of us—Florida State fans, Michigan fans, Washington fans, Florida fans—that news likely comes as a relief. For others—Oregon fans, Miami fans, Tennessee fans, Texas fans—you’re living one of those seasons you do your best to savor, because you know from experience that they don’t come around all that often. And for others still—Ohio State fans, Georgia fans, Alabama fans, Penn State fans—that news may startle you, because you know your team could do something meaningful this year, but you’re not sure if there’s enough time for them to get their shit together—or perhaps whether the right things are going to happen around them—for your guys to make a run.
As we enter this final month, we thought it’d be appropriate for Burt to share his final “Team Tiers” of the season. A quick note before he does: as we discussed in the preseason, college football is in a state of flux. Some of the things that are happening right now are unsavory and unsustainable—there’s no doubt about that—but the notion, shared by so many a year or two ago, that the advent of NIL and the transfer portal would simply lead to a further concentration of top talent among a handful of powerhouse programs is being proven wrong before our very eyes, and we here at TTM are fucking here for it! How fun was Vandy over ‘Bama? Vandy over Auburn?? Vandy over anyone??? Still, we know many of you are nonplussed over the current state of the sport, so we’ll reiterate our thesis from the summertime: This will all get worked out. Just enjoy the ride. And while we have you in that hypnotic state…Subscribe all your friends to the newsletter. They’ll thank you later. Alright, to the tiers!!
Note: as we lay out these teams’ resumes, we’re including a couple helpful symbols, based on Jeff Sagarin’s long-utilized RPI ratings: $ = Top 10 win. ₵= Top 30 win.
But it’s hard not to go ahead and lock these quacks in. They’re undefeated (with a win over another likely playoff team in Ohio State), they’re a brand (let’s go Nike!), they’re in a Power 2 conference, and they’re extremely unlikely to enter Selection Sunday with more than one loss on their resume. The Ducks are in.
Solidly in the field right now—albeit without any terribly impressive wins (that Michigan win aged like Wisconsin milk)—but with a momentous revival of their nasty rivalry with Texas A&M coming up at the end of the month, following two potential landmines against Arkansas (sneaky sexy old Southwest Conference rivalry) and Kentucky. They’re right in the thick of it and could probably afford one more loss, but the ‘Horns can’t dick around with their remaining schedule.
Hoo boy…BYU was probably lucky to sneak out of last week with a win over arch rival Utah, but the Cougars will take it any way they can get it as they remain unbeaten. Kilani Sitake’s (cool name) team of 26 year-old missionaries will obviously make the playoff if they win out—but what if they lose the Big 12 championship game? Will the committee, who so far seems quite motivated to promote the Power 2—the Big Ten does not have a good record against other power conferences this season, by the way…they’re 7-9, versus the SEC’s 10-5, the ACC’s 9-9, and the Big 12’s 5-9—really allow two Big 12 teams into the field? The answer is…we have no idea. We certainly have an idea of who they’d like to stack the field with (big-name Power 2 programs), but how far will they go to do so? That’s the million dollar question.
The Bucknuts have Northwestern, Indiana, and Michigan left and…Indiana??...is the biggest of the three? Great story there in Bloomington this season, but we expect Ohio State to overwhelm Cigs’ guys in the Horseshoe, and then I, Burt, would probably bet on a ritualistic blood-letting the next week against hated rival Michigan, who has ruined several Buckeye seasons in recent memory. If Ohio State takes care of business, they likely earn a rematch with Oregon in the Big Ten championship game, and even with a loss there, we think they’re in the field (again, big-name Power 2).
Massive game for the Vols this weekend, who could virtually lock up a playoff spot with a road win over Georgia. Is Nico healthy enough to go? Or is Tennessee head man Bobby Hill just playing little baby games with our ‘Dawgs? We’ll find out at about 7:25 on Saturdee night, just ahead of a matchup where the trench play—particularly between the Vols’ elite defensive line and Georgia’s banged-up and much-maligned, but still supremely talented, offensive line—has us licking our chops.
Fucking finally…These jabronis tempted fate one too many times, and Georgia Tech pipped ‘em. Still, Miami’s in position to make the ACC championship game, and would likely be the betting favorite there, where a win would not only put the Hurricanes directly into the playoff, but would grant them a first round bye. We’ve said it all year: Miami’s offense is elite, and their trench play on both sides of the ball has improved immensely over the past couple seasons. But their defense has grown increasingly leaky in the second half of the season, and as a team they seem to lack the killer instinct that championship teams tend to exhibit, both trends that make us question how effective they’d be in a big-boy battle in the ‘yoff.
Jalen Milroe man…The Alabama quarterback was the best athlete on the field against LSU last week, and when he’s healthy and being used properly, that Tide offense is extremely difficult to contain. Though they have two losses, ‘Bama arguably has the best combination of wins in the country (Georgia, LSU, a vastly improved South Carolina), and if they run the table against reeling Oklahoma and Auburn, they’ll be comfortably in the field.
Has Penn State beaten anyone of note? Not really. But the Nittany Lions have taken care of business against less talented opponents, are 8-1, and are right in the thick of the playoff hunt. Their path to the Big 10 title game is probably blocked—Ohio State has the head-to-head tiebreaker and Oregon looks unlikely to drop one, let alone two, of their remaining conference games—and that may actually be a blessing in disguise for James Franklin’s Nittany Beavers. If they can sweep their last three of Purdue, Minnesota, and Maryland, can you really keep an 11-1 Penn State out? I don’t think so. For Penn State, it’s win and you’re in, and then we’ll get to see—together with our friends from Happy Valley—whether this program is ready to take the next step.
Hate it all you want, fans of (insert Southern team), but Notre Dame’s squarely on course to make the ‘yoff and get blasted by said Southern team (I’m kidding! They might not!!). As always, the Irish are stout up front, they have a talented, veteran-laden defense, and they’re equipped to out-physical less imposing teams (as they did to my hapless ‘Noles last week…). But the million Lira question remains: Are they skilled enough to win playoff games against teams that don’t shrink against their physicality? Can quarterback Riley Leonard make high-level throws in a pressurized environment against a big-boy opponent? We’re fittin’ to find out…
You can see it right there next to their record…no top 10 wins, no top 30 wins. To be fair, Cignetti’s guys simply haven’t had the opportunity. But the year-over-year improvement is diabolical, and the Hoosiers absolutely deserve to be in the playoff hunt. Now let’s see if they can make it a game in the Horseshoe next week…
A weekly newsletter delivered Fridays during college football season.